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A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector

  • Havrylchyk, Olena

In this study a macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector was developed. The findings demonstrate that macroeconomic shocks have a large impact on credit losses. However, owing to a high level of current capitalisation, the South African banking sector is resilient to severe economic shocks. At the same time, banks are rather sensitive to changes in real interest rates and property prices due to the high share of mortgages at flexible interest rates in their credit portfolios.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21639.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21639
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Ioannis Tokatlidis, 2003. "Financial Liberalisation: The African Experience," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(Supplemen), pages 53-88, September.
  2. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  3. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of house prices in central and eastern Europe," BIS Working Papers 236, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Review and New Evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(Supplemen), pages 89-110, September.
  6. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2002:i:3:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Dale F. Gray & James P Walsh, 2008. "Factor Model for Stress-Testing with a Contingent Claims Model of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 08/89, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing At the IMF," IMF Working Papers 08/206, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  12. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Harvir Kalirai & Martin Scheicher, 2002. "Macroeconomic Stress Testing: Preliminary Evidence for Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 58-74.
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