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Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Balázs Egert
  • Dubravko Mihaljek

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of house prices in eight transition economies of central and eastern Europe (CEE) and 19 OECD countries. The main question addressed is whether the conventional fundamental determinants of house prices, such as GDP per capita, real interest rates, housing credit and demographic factors, have driven observed house prices in CEE. We show that house prices in CEE are determined to a large extent by the underlying conventional fundamentals and some transition-specific factors, in particular institutional development of housing markets and housing finance and quality effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2152, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2152
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jose Palacin & Robert Shelburne, 2005. "The Private Housing Market in Eastern Europe and the CIS," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2005_5, UNECE.
    2. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.
    3. Égert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank.
    4. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    5. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
    6. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    7. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1997. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Econometrics 9703001, EconWPA.
    8. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1994. "The UK Consumption Boom of the Late 1980s: Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1269-1302, November.
    12. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Private-Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 201-231, June.
    13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; housing market; transition economies; central and eastern Europe; OECD countries;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • P25 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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