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Private-Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?

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  • Balázs Égert

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, EconomiX at University of Paris X-Nanterre and William Davidson Institute, France.)

  • Peter Backé

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, France.)

  • Tina Zumer

    () (European Central Bank, France.)

Abstract

This paper analyses the equilibrium level of private credit to GDP in 11 Central and Eastern European countries in order to see whether the high credit growth recently observed in some of these countries led to above equilibrium private credit-to-GDP levels. We use estimation results obtained for a panel of small open OECD economies (out-of-sample sample) to derive the equilibrium credit level for a panel of transition economies (in-sample panel). We opt for this (out-of-sample) approach because the coefficient estimates for transition economies are fairly unstable. We show that there is a large amount of uncertainty to determine the equilibrium level of private credit. Yet our results indicate that a number of countries are very close or even above the estimated equilibrium levels, whereas others are still well below the equilibrium level. Comparative Economic Studies (2007) 49, 201–231. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100191

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Private-Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 201-231, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:49:y:2007:i:2:p:201-231
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Rubaszek & Dobromil Serwa, 2011. "Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model," NBP Working Papers 92, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    2. Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
    3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    4. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, potential output and the business cycle," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 14, pages 235-264 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Mariya Hake, 2012. "Banking Sector Concentration and Firm Indebtedness: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-68.
    6. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    7. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Katharina Steiner, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," NBER Working Papers 14438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    11. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    12. Petar Peshev, 2015. "Modelling the demand and supply of loans in Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 52-69,70-85.
    13. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromił, 2014. "Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 572-587.

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