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Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence

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  • Vieira, Fabrício A.C.
  • Holland, Márcio
  • Resende, Marco F.

Abstract

This paper explores the persistence of financial dollarization in a group of 79 economies with different levels of development. Our main hypothesis is that a high level of domestic debt combined with default risk explains this persistence, even after a decline in inflation rates. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a panel data analysis, our results show that inflation risks caused by increasing probability of default account for financial dollarization more than inflation rate itself. After the decrease in inflation rates, the foreign currency-denominated deposits remain large because of the high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly in speculative-grade economies. High public indebtedness leads to expectations of default. Dollarization is a rational response to the future inflation associated with investors' expectations of default observed in highly indebted economies.

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  • Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1695-1714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.03.007
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    2. Kazeem B. Ajide & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Simplice A. Asongu, 2018. "Dollarization and the “Unbundling†of Globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 18/034, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    3. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Institutions and financial dollarization: Indirect effects based on a policy experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 405-410.
    4. Márcio Holland, 2014. "Managing Capital Inflows in Brazil," MIT Press Book Chapters, in: What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy After the Crisis, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 289-306, The MIT Press.
    5. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    6. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    7. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Zhang, Zhongxia & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Foreign Exchange Reserve Movements? Financial Dollarization in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 120822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Arrieta Vidal, Johar & Florián Hoyle, David & López Vargas, Kristian & Morales Vásquez, Valeria, 2022. "Policies for transactional de-dollarization: A laboratory study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 31-54.
    10. Mohapatra, Sanket & Nagar, Jay Prakash, 2020. "Foreign Currency Borrowing and Firm Financing Constraints in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    11. Ajide, Kazeem B. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Dollarization and the “unbundling” of globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-409.
    12. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2016. "Dollarization, liquidity and performance: Evidence from Turkish banking," MPRA Paper 72812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Andrii Kaminskyi & Nataliia Versal, 2018. "Risk Management of Dollarization in Banking: Case of Post-Soviet Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 14(2), pages 21-40.
    14. Kladakis, George & Skouralis, Alexandros, 2024. "Credit rating downgrades and systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    16. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Kishor, Narayan K. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "What Is Driving Financial Dollarization In Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 816-835, June.
    18. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial dollarization; Risk of inflation; Risk of default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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