IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v31y2012i6p1695-1714.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Vieira, Fabrício A.C.
  • Holland, Márcio
  • Resende, Marco F.

Abstract

This paper explores the persistence of financial dollarization in a group of 79 economies with different levels of development. Our main hypothesis is that a high level of domestic debt combined with default risk explains this persistence, even after a decline in inflation rates. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a panel data analysis, our results show that inflation risks caused by increasing probability of default account for financial dollarization more than inflation rate itself. After the decrease in inflation rates, the foreign currency-denominated deposits remain large because of the high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly in speculative-grade economies. High public indebtedness leads to expectations of default. Dollarization is a rational response to the future inflation associated with investors' expectations of default observed in highly indebted economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1695-1714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.03.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560612000721
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.03.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raghuram G. Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis, 2005. "Dollar Shortages and Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Miles, Marc A, 1978. "Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 428-436, June.
    4. Patrick Honohan, 2008. "The Retreat of Deposit Dollarization," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 247-268, December.
    5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    6. Broda, Christian & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2006. "Endogenous Deposit Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 963-988, June.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    10. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    11. Gonçalves, Fernando M & Holland, Marcio & Spacov, Andrei, 2007. "Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty and Capital Controls Explain the High Level of Real Interest Rates in Brazil? Evidence from Panel Data," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(1), August.
    12. Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1992. "Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's Law in Reverse?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 518-544, September.
    13. Márcio Holland & Edmar L. Bacha & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2007/294, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    15. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2001. "A "Vertical" Analysis of Crises and Intervention: Fear of Floating and Ex-ante Problems," NBER Working Papers 8428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
    17. Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Debt Maturity and the Global Financial Architecture," CEPR Discussion Papers 2520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Mr. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Mr. Alain Ize, 1998. "Dollarization of Financial Intermediation: Causes and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 1998/028, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Augusto De La Torre & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2004. "Coping with Risks through Mismatches: Domestic and International Financial Contracts for Emerging Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 349-390, December.
    20. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    22. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina’s Currency Board," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 43-108, January.
    23. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    24. S. Pelin Berkmen & Eduardo Cavallo, 2010. "Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization: What do the Data Reveal about Causality?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 781-795, November.
    25. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    26. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    27. Mr. Robert Rennhack & Mr. Masahiro Nozaki, 2006. "Financial Dollarization in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2006/007, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
    29. Carlos Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Nicolo, Gianni De & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2005. "Dollarization of bank deposits: Causes and consequences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1697-1727, July.
    31. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don E, 1981. "Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 12-30, February.
    32. Liviatan, Nissan, 1981. "Monetary Expansion and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1218-1227, December.
    33. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Inflation: Causes and Effects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hall82-1, October.
    34. Ortiz, Guillermo, 1983. "Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 174-185, May.
    35. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    36. Thomas, Lee R, 1985. "Portfolio Theory and Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 347-357, August.
    37. Honig, Adam, 2009. "Dollarization, exchange rate regimes and government quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 198-214, March.
    38. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
    39. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 803-832, December.
    40. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Private-Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 201-231, June.
    41. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    42. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff:savastano is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Carlos Arteta, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and financial dollarization: does flexibility reduce bank currency mismatches?," International Finance Discussion Papers 738, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. John Hawkins & Paul Masson, 2003. "Economic aspects of regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 4-42, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert & Zoltan Walko, 2007. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe Revisited," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 69-77.
    46. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    47. John Hawkins, 2003. "Central bank balance sheets and fiscal operations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies, volume 20, pages 71-83, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simplice Asongu & Ibrahim Raheem & Venessa Tchamyou, 2018. "Information asymmetry and financial dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 231-249, June.
    2. Kazeem B. Ajide & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Simplice A. Asongu, 2018. "Dollarization and the “Unbundling†of Globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 18/034, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    3. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Institutions and financial dollarization: Indirect effects based on a policy experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 405-410.
    4. Márcio Holland, 2014. "Managing Capital Inflows in Brazil," MIT Press Book Chapters, in: What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy After the Crisis, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 289-306, The MIT Press.
    5. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    6. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    7. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Zhang, Zhongxia & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Foreign Exchange Reserve Movements? Financial Dollarization in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 120822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Arrieta Vidal, Johar & Florián Hoyle, David & López Vargas, Kristian & Morales Vásquez, Valeria, 2022. "Policies for transactional de-dollarization: A laboratory study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 31-54.
    10. Mohapatra, Sanket & Nagar, Jay Prakash, 2020. "Foreign Currency Borrowing and Firm Financing Constraints in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    11. Ajide, Kazeem B. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Dollarization and the “unbundling” of globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-409.
    12. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2016. "Dollarization, liquidity and performance: Evidence from Turkish banking," MPRA Paper 72812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Andrii Kaminskyi & Nataliia Versal, 2018. "Risk Management of Dollarization in Banking: Case of Post-Soviet Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 14(2), pages 21-40.
    14. Kladakis, George & Skouralis, Alexandros, 2024. "Credit rating downgrades and systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    16. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Kishor, Narayan K. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "What Is Driving Financial Dollarization In Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 816-835, June.
    18. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.
    2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    3. Bacha, Edmar & Holland, Marcio & Gonçalves, Fernando M., 2009. "High Interest Rates in Brazil: A Panel-Based Analysis," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(4), December.
    4. Edmar L. Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, And Interest In Emerging Markets," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Ajide, Kazeem B. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Dollarization and the “unbundling” of globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-409.
    6. Márcio Holland & Edmar L. Bacha & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2007/294, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    8. Yinusa, D. Olalekan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Deposit Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data," MPRA Paper 16259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    9. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    10. Alberto Giovannini & Bart Turtelboom, 1992. "Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 4232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Edmar Lisboa Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest in Emerging Markets," Textos para Discussão 11, Instituto de Estudos de Política Econômica.
    12. Miguel Lebre de Freitas & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 719-743, August.
    13. Metin-Özcan, Kıvılcım & Us, Vuslat, 2007. "Dedollarization in Turkey after decades of dollarization: A myth or reality?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(1), pages 292-306.
    14. Patrick Amir Imam, 2022. "De‐dollarization in Zimbabwe: What lessons can be learned from other sub‐Saharan countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 770-801, January.
    15. Lula G. Mengesha & Mark J. Holmes, 2013. "Does Dollarization Alleviate Or Aggravate Exchange Rate Volatility?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 99-118, June.
    16. Juan‐Sebastian Corrales & Patrick Amir Imam, 2021. "Financial dollarization of households and firms: How does it differ by level of economic development?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 927-978, September.
    17. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0609, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Alain Ize & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial De-Dollarization: Is It for Real?," Business School Working Papers isitforreal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    19. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    20. Piontkovsky Ruslan, 2003. "Dollarization, Inflation Volatility and Underdeveloped Financial Markets in Transition Economies," EERC Working Paper Series 03-02e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial dollarization; Risk of inflation; Risk of default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1695-1714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.