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The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies

  • K C Neanidis
  • C S Savva

This paper examines the effects of inflation and currency substitution volatility on the average rates of inflation and currency substitution for twelve emerging market economies. Using a bivariate GARCH-in-Mean model, which accommodates for asymmetric and spillover effects of inflation and currency substitution innovations on their volatilities, we find that for the majority of the countries in the sample the variability of inflation exerts a positive influence on both the average rates of inflation and currency substitution. Similarly, higher uncertainty in currency substitution displays enhancing effects on inflation and currency substitution. These results indicate an alternative avenue that stresses the importance of currency substitution for the conduct of monetary policy in terms of price stability, and provide an additional explanation to the phenomenon of dollarization hysteresis.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr71.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 71.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:71
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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  16. Chang, Roberto, 1994. "Endogenous Currency Substitution, Inflationary Finance, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 903-16, November.
  17. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
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  22. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2004. "The Dynamics of Inflation and Currency Substitution in a Small Open Economy," NIPE Working Papers 1/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
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  26. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ilker Doma�, 2003. "On the Link between Dollarisation and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 306-328, September.
  27. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November.
  28. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
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