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Dollarisation in the Former Soviet Union: from Hysteria to Hysteresis

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  • Oleh Havrylyshyn

    () (International Monetary Fund, European II Department, Room HQ 6-120, 700 19th street NW, Washington DC, 20431, USA.)

  • Christian H Beddies

    () (International Monetary Fund, European II Department, Room HQ 6-120, 700 19th street NW, Washington DC, 20431, USA.)

Abstract

This paper reviews evidence of dollarisation in Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries, and finds that it is still very high, the well-known hysteresis effect. However high dollarisation – defined as the use of any foreign currency – is not only due to inertial lack of confidence. There is also some tentative evidence that suggests foreign currency is used – in both cash and deposit form – as one of the very few alternative instruments for portfolio diversification in an embryonic financial market. It is also shown that, contrary to the received wisdom, high dollarisation does not seriously impede effective conduct of monetary policy: money demand in FSU countries is stabilising, and the most important objective, meaningful inflation control, has been widely achieved. Thus, high dollarisation is not per se as damaging as often thought, and in fact has a beneficial dimension in promoting financial market development. Nonetheless, high dollarisation remains a concern since it provides mechanisms for magnifying vulnerabilities in the event of a crisis even if it might not be the direct cause of a crisis. This necessarily implies that some policy options (such as immediate exchange rate devaluation) are not viable or very costly in a crisis. Comparative Economic Studies (2003) 45, 329–357. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100018

Suggested Citation

  • Oleh Havrylyshyn & Christian H Beddies, 2003. "Dollarisation in the Former Soviet Union: from Hysteria to Hysteresis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 329-357, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:45:y:2003:i:3:p:329-357
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-50, May.
    2. Olga Aslanidi, 2008. "Dollarization in Transition Economies: New Evidence from Georgia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp366, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Isakova, Asel, 2010. "Currency substitution in the economies of Central Asia : how much does it cost?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0609, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Brad Setser & Ioannis Halikias & Alexander Pitt & Christoph B. Rosenberg & Brett E. House & Jens Nystedt & Christian Keller, 2005. "Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 240, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gurkan I. Akalin & Edmund L. Prater, 2015. "The Global Crisis of the Late 2000s and Currency Substitution: A Study of Three Eastern European Economies Russia, Turkey and Ukraine," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(2), pages 5-22.
    8. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
    9. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Asel Isakova, 2010. "Currency Substitution in the Economies of Central Asia: How Much Does it Cost?," Chapters,in: The Euro and Economic Stability, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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