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Does Currency Substitution Affect Exchange Rate Volatility?

Author

Listed:
  • Hisao Kumamoto

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Fukushima University 1, Kanayagawa, Fukushima-shi, Fukushima 960-1296, JAPAN.)

  • Masao Kumamoto

    (Faculty of Economics, Tokyo Keizai University, 1-7-34, Minami-cho, Kokubunji-shi, Tokyo 185-8502, JAPAN)

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru). We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Hisao Kumamoto & Masao Kumamoto, 2014. "Does Currency Substitution Affect Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 698-704.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-04-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yinusa, Dauda Olalekan, 2008. "Between dollarization and exchange rate volatility: Nigeria's portfolio diversification option," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 811-826.
    2. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1993. "Currency substitution and exchange rate volatility in the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 351-365, November.
    3. Yinusa D. O. & A. E. Akinlo, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Extent of Currency Substitution in Nigeria," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 161-181, December.
    4. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 185-202, September.
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    7. Isaac, Allan G., 1989. "Exchange rate volatility and currency substitution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 277-284, June.
    8. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don E, 1981. "Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 12-30, February.
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    11. Akcay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Karasulu, Meral, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate instability: The Turkish case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 827-835, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Substitution; Exchange Rate Volatility; TARCH model;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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