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Cryptocurrencies, currency competition, and the impossible trinity

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  • Benigno, Pierpaolo
  • Schilling, Linda M.
  • Uhlig, Harald

Abstract

We analyze a two-country economy with complete markets, featuring two national currencies as well as a global (crypto)currency. If the global currency is used in both countries, the national nominal interest rates must be equal and the exchange rate between the national currencies is a risk-adjusted martingale. Deviation from interest rate equality implies the risk of approaching the zero lower bound or the abandonment of the national currency. We call this result Crypto-Enforced Monetary Policy Synchronization (CEMPS). If the global currency is backed by interest-bearing assets, additional and tight restrictions on monetary policy arise. Thus, the classic Impossible Trinity becomes even less reconcilable.

Suggested Citation

  • Benigno, Pierpaolo & Schilling, Linda M. & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies, currency competition, and the impossible trinity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:136:y:2022:i:c:s0022199622000332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103601
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    Cited by:

    1. Biais, Bruno & Bisière, Christophe & Bouvard, Matthieu & Casamatta, Catherine & Menkveld, Albert J., 2018. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," TSE Working Papers 18-973, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Nov 2021.
    2. Schilling, Linda & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Uhlig, Harald, 2020. "Central Bank Digital Currency: When price and bank stability collide," MPRA Paper 113248, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2022.
    3. Ferry Syarifuddin & Toni Bakhtiar, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of an Interest-Bearing CBDC: A DSGE Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-33, May.
    4. Anastasia Melachrinos & Christian Pfister, 2020. "Stablecoins: A Brave New World?," Working papers 757, Banque de France.
    5. Dirk Niepelt, 2022. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Diskussionsschriften dp2212, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Notarpietro & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Monetary policy in the open economy with digital currencies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1366, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Guizhou Wang & Kjell Hausken, 2022. "The evolution of fixed-supply and variable-supply currencies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    9. Richard K. Lyons & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?," NBER Working Papers 27136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Uhlig, Harald & Xie, Taojun, 2020. "Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 15619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2021. "Coins with benefits: On existence, pricing kernel and risk premium of cryptocurrencies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-006, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    12. Daisuke Ikeda, 2022. "Digital Money as a Medium of Exchange and Monetary Policy in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Hull, Isaiah & Sattath, Or, 2021. "Revisiting the Properties of Money," Working Paper Series 406, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency," Working Papers No 07/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    15. Radwanski, Juliusz, 2021. "The Equilibrium Value of Bitcoin," MPRA Paper 110746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-68.
    17. Guizhou Wang & Kjell Hausken, 2022. "Competition between Variable–Supply and Fixed–Supply Currencies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, October.
    18. Scharnowski, Stefan, 2022. "Central bank speeches and digital currency competition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    19. Daisuke Ikeda, 2020. "Digital Money as a Unit of Account and Monetary Policy in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Cong, Lin William & Mayer, Simon, 2022. "The Coming Battle of Digital Currencies," Applied Economics and Policy Working Paper Series 320020, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    21. Marcelo A. T. Aragão, 2021. "A Few Things You Wanted to Know about the Economics of CBDCs, but were Afraid to Model: a survey of what we can learn from who has done," Working Papers Series 554, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Guizhou Wang & Kjell Hausken, 2021. "Governmental Taxation of Households Choosing between a National Currency and a Cryptocurrency," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, April.
    23. Ferry Syarifuddin & Toni Bakhtiar, 2021. "Monetary Policy Strategy In The Presence Of Central Bank Digital Currency," Working Papers WP/09/2021, Bank Indonesia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency competition; Cryptocurrency; Impossible trinity; Exchange rates; Uncovered interest parity; Independent monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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