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Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model

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  • Manuelli, Rodolfo E
  • Peck, James

Abstract

This paper analyzes a stochastic model of exchange rate determination with unrestricted access to capital and currency markets. It is shown that the only restriction imposed by the model on the equilibrium exchange rate is that it satisfy a martingale property. This implies that, for a given real equilibrium allocation (which is optimal), the model can display varying amounts of exchange rate volatility, and that volatility is unrelated to the welfare properties of the equilibrium allocation. Whether or not volatility is "excessive" therefore depends on which equilibrium is chosen as the basis for comparison. Copyright 1990 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Peck, James, 1990. "Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 559-574, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:31:y:1990:i:3:p:559-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Head, Allen & Shi, Shouyong, 2003. "A fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1555-1591, October.
    2. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Lise & Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2017. "International transmission of bubble crashes in a two-country overlapping generations model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 115-126.
    3. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2015. "International Transmission of Bubble Crashes in a Two-Country Overlapping Generations," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-43, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    4. Engel, C., 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-13, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    5. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-541, June.
    6. Djeutem, Edouard & Kasa, Kenneth, 2013. "Robustness and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-39.
    7. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Garratt, Rod & Keister, Todd & Qin, Cheng-Zhong & Shell, Karl, 2002. "Equilibrium Prices When the Sunspot Variable Is Continuous," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 11-38, November.
    9. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: A Theoretical Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 552-569, August.
    10. M. Salto & T. Pietra, 2013. "Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 501-529, March.
    11. Eugeni, Sara, 2015. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Net Foreign Assets' Dynamics: the Stabilization Role of Valuation Effects," MPRA Paper 63549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Barnett, Richard C. & Ho, Mun S., 1996. "Sunspots, currency substitution, and inflationary finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 73-93, August.
    13. Ravikumar, B & Wallace, Neil, 2002. "A benefit of uniform currency," MPRA Paper 22951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Alexei Deviatov & Igor Dodonov, 2006. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate disconnect, and the failure of volatility conservation," Working Papers w0079, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    15. Irasema Alonso, 2004. "Persistent, Nonfundamental Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 687-706, July.
    16. SALTO, Matteo, 1998. "Indeterminacy of equilibrium allocations in monetary open economies," CORE Discussion Papers 1998062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Carsten K. Nielsen, 2001. "Three Exchange Rate Regimes and a Monetary Union: Determinacy, Currency Crises, and Welfare," Working Papers 0104, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    18. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing for Sunspot in the Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58.

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