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An equilibrium model of the international price system

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  • Mukhin, Dmitry

Abstract

What explains the central role of the dollar in world trade? Will the US currency retain its dominant status in the future? This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework with endogenous currency choice that can address these questions. Complementarities in price setting and input-output linkages across firms generate complementarities in currency choice making exporters coordinate on the same currency of invoicing. The dollar is more likely to play this role because of the large size of the US economy, a widespread peg to the dollar, and the history dependence in currency choice. Calibrated using the world input-output tables and exchange rate moments, the model can successfully replicate the key empirical facts about the use of currencies at the global level, across countries, and over time. According to the counterfactual analysis, the peg to the dollar in other economies ensures that the US currency is unlikely to lose its global status because of the falling US share in the world economy, but can be replaced by the renminbi in case of a negative shock in the US economy. If the peg is abandoned, the world is likely to move to a new equilibrium with multiple regional currencies.

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  • Mukhin, Dmitry, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the international price system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112500
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/112500/
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    Cited by:

    1. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120000, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir & Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2022. "World Money in Time and Space: A Blow to the Dollar or a Blow by the Dollar?," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 7-33.
    3. Zhang, Chen & Fang, Ying & Niu, Linlin, 2022. "Changing anchor of the renminbi: A Bayesian learning approach to the decade-long transition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2023. "Exchange rate misalignment and external imbalances: what is the optimal monetary policy response?," Working Paper Series 2843, European Central Bank.
    5. Katarzyna Twarowska-Mól, 2023. "Factors influencing the choice of the invoicing currency in international trade: Panel data analysis for 55 countries," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 153-183, March.
    6. Simone Auer, 2023. "Financial globalization and monetary transmission," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 721-760, May.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2020. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Kim, Myunghyun, 2023. "Gains from monetary policy cooperation under asymmetric currency pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gopinath, Gita & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Nguyen, Tra, 2022. "Patterns of invoicing currency in global trade: New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Colin Weiss, 2022. "Geopolitics and the U.S. Dollar's Future as a Reserve Currency," International Finance Discussion Papers 1359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2023. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    12. Egorov, Konstantin & Mukhin, Dmitry, 2023. "Optimal policy under dollar pricing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118585, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Yang Liu & Tongshuai Qiao & Liyan Han, 2022. "Does clean energy matter? Revisiting the spillovers between energy and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2068-2083, November.
    14. Antoine Berthou, 2023. "International sanctions and the dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing," Working papers 924, Banque de France.
    15. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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