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Hedge Your Costs: Exchange Rate Risk and Endogenous Currency Invoicing

  • Novy, Dennis

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

The choice of invoicing currency for trade is crucial for the international transmission of macroeconomic policy. This paper develops a three-country model that endogenizes the choice of invoicing currency and that allows for a share of firms' costs to be denominated in foreign currency, consistent with the empirical evidence on the high degree of pass-through to import prices. Invoicing decisions are driven by firms' desire to hedge costs but also by exchange rate volatility and currency comovements. The model is tested empirically with a data set that spans ten currencies and 24 reporting countries, confirming the importance of currency comovements for the decision to invoice in vehicle currency. The findings also imply that if the U.S. share of world output continues to fall, other currencies will increasingly replace the U.S. dollar as an international vehicle currency.

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Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 765.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:765
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  1. Rey, Hélène, 1999. "International Trade and Currency Exchange," CEPR Discussion Papers 2226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "Why Do Consumer Prices React less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 747, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Trade invoicing in the accession countries: are they suited to the Euro?," Staff Reports 222, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Devereux, Michael B & Engel, Charles M & Storgaard, Peter Ejler, 2002. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Nominal Prices Are Set in Advance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
  8. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  9. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  10. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Staff Reports 200, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  12. Oi, Hiroyuki & Otani, Akira & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2004. "The Choice of Invoice Currency in International Trade: Implications for the Internationalization of the Yen," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 27-63, March.
  13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
  14. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred Haug, 2003. "Currency Invoicing in International Trade: an Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 332-345, 05.
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