IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/doi10.1086-714445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Equilibrium Model of the Market for Bitcoin Mining

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Prat
  • Benjamin Walter

Abstract

We propose a model that uses the exchange rate of Bitcoin against the US dollar to predict the computing power of Bitcoin’s network. We show that free entry places an upper bound on mining revenues and explain how it can be identified. Calibrating the model’s parameters allows us to accurately forecast the evolution of the network computing power over time. We find that a significant share of mining rewards was invested in mining equipment and that the seigniorage income of miners was limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Prat & Benjamin Walter, 2021. "An Equilibrium Model of the Market for Bitcoin Mining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2415-2452.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/714445
    DOI: 10.1086/714445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/714445
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/714445
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/714445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schilling, Linda & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Some simple bitcoin economics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 16-26.
    2. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Sanches, Daniel, 2019. "Can currency competition work?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-15.
    3. John Kareken & Neil Wallace, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(2), pages 207-222.
    4. Nicolas Houy, 2014. "The Bitcoin mining games," Working Papers 1412, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    6. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chiu, Jonathan & Koeppl, Thorsten V, 2017. "The economics of cryptocurrencies – bitcoin and beyond," Working Paper Series 6688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Clay, Karen & Jones, Randall, 2008. "Migrating to Riches? Evidence from the California Gold Rush," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1027, December.
    10. June Ma & Joshua S. Gans & Rabee Tourky, 2018. "Market Structure in Bitcoin Mining," NBER Working Papers 24242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2017. "The Economics Of Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin And Beyond," Working Paper 1389, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Lin William Cong & Zhiguo He, 2019. "Blockchain Disruption and Smart Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1754-1797.
    13. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    14. Aïd, René & Federico, Salvatore & Pham, Huyên & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2015. "Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 240-256.
    15. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta, 2019. "The Blockchain Folk Theorem," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1662-1715.
    16. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    17. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    18. Camilo Mora & Randi L. Rollins & Katie Taladay & Michael B. Kantar & Mason K. Chock & Mio Shimada & Erik C. Franklin, 2018. "Bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 931-933, November.
    19. R?diger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 2013. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-67, October.
    20. Rodney J. Garratt & Maarten R. C. van Oordt, 2023. "Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work–Based Cryptocurrencies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 6482-6507, November.
    21. Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 508-534, June.
    22. Huberman, Gur & Leshno, Jacob & Moallemi, Ciamac C., 2017. "Monopoly Without a Monopolist: An Economic Analysis of the Bitcoin Payment System," CEPR Discussion Papers 12322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. KiHoon Hong & Kyounghoon Park & Jongmin Yu, 2018. "Crowding Out in a Dual Currency Regime? Digital Versus Fiat Currency," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 2495-2515, September.
    24. Charles Bertucci & Louis Bertucci & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions, 2020. "Mean Field Game Approach to Bitcoin Mining," Papers 2004.08167, arXiv.org.
    25. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen & Basu, Soumya, 2019. "From mining to markets: The evolution of bitcoin transaction fees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 91-109.
    26. Michel Rauchs & Garrick Hileman, 2017. "Global Cryptocurrency Benchmarking Study," Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance Reports 201704-gcbs, Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    27. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2010. "Economic Theory and the World of Practice: A Celebration of the ( S , s ) Model," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 183-202, Winter.
    28. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14292 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier, 2018. "Blockchain Economics," NBER Working Papers 25407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Anil Savio Kavuri & Alistair Milne, 2019. "FinTech and the future of financial services: What are the research gaps?," CAMA Working Papers 2019-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Schilling, Linda M. & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies, currency competition, and the impossible trinity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Hanna Halaburda & Guillaume Haeringer & Joshua Gans & Neil Gandal, 2022. "The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 971-1013, September.
    6. Jermann, Urban J., 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Ye Li & Simon Mayer & Simon Mayer, 2021. "Money Creation in Decentralized Finance: A Dynamic Model of Stablecoin and Crypto Shadow Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series 9260, CESifo.
    8. Lin William Cong & Zhiguo He & Jiasun Li & Wei Jiang, 2021. "Decentralized Mining in Centralized Pools [Concentrating on the fall of the labor share]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1191-1235.
    9. Cong, Lin William & Li, Ye & Wang, Neng, 2022. "Token-based platform finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 972-991.
    10. Chiu, Jonathan & Wong, Tsz-Nga, 2022. "Payments on digital platforms: Resiliency, interoperability and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Nikhil Malik & Manmohan Aseri & Param Vir Singh & Kannan Srinivasan, 2022. "Why Bitcoin Will Fail to Scale?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7323-7349, October.
    12. Gilles Hilary & Laura Xiaolei Liu, 2021. "Blockchain and Other Distributed Ledger Technologies in Finance," Springer Books, in: Raghavendra Rau & Robert Wardrop & Luigi Zingales (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Technological Finance, pages 243-268, Springer.
    13. Saketh Aleti & Bruce Mizrach, 2021. "Bitcoin spot and futures market microstructure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 194-225, February.
    14. Andrew Detzel & Hong Liu & Jack Strauss & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2021. "Learning and predictability via technical analysis: Evidence from bitcoin and stocks with hard‐to‐value fundamentals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 107-137, March.
    15. Richard K. Lyons & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?," NBER Working Papers 27136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    17. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2023. "Female unemployment, mobile money innovations and doing business by females," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, December.
    18. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    19. Raphael Auer, 2019. "Beyond the doomsday economics of "proof-of-work" in cryptocurrencies," BIS Working Papers 765, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Lin William Cong & Ye Li & Neng Wang, 2021. "Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation [The demand of liquid assets with uncertain lumpy expenditures]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1105-1155.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/714445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.