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Nominal Exchange Rate Determinacy Under the Threat of Currency Counterfeiting

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Abstract

We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and their implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider a two-country environment with two currencies which can be used to settle any transactions. However, currencies can be counterfeited at a fixed cost and the decision to counterfeit is private information. This induces equilibrium liquidity constraints on the currencies in circulation. We show that the threat of counterfeiting can pin down the nominal exchange rate even when the currencies are perfect substitutes, thus breaking the Kareken-Wallace indeterminacy result. When the two currencies are not perfect substitutes, an international currency can exist whereby one country has two currencies circulating while the other country uses only one. We also find that with appropriate fiscal policies we can enlarge the set of monetary equilibria with determinate nominal exchange rates. Finally, we show that the threat of counterfeiting can also help determine nominal exchange rates in a variety of different trading environments.

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  • Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Timothy Kam & Christopher J. Waller, 2015. "Nominal Exchange Rate Determinacy Under the Threat of Currency Counterfeiting," Working Papers 2015-28, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-028
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2015.028
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Shuze & Puzzello, Daniela, 2020. "Legal restrictions and international currencies: An experimental approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Choi, Michael & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2022. "Money mining and price dynamics: The case of divisible currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Sanches, Daniel, 2023. "A model of the gold standard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Daniel R. Sanches, 2024. "Price-Level Determination Under the Gold Standard," Working Papers 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Pedro Gomis‐Porqueras, 2020. "Fiscal Requirements for Dynamic and Real Determinacies in Economies with Private Provision of Liquidity: A Monetarist Assessment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 229-267, February.
    6. Seungduck Lee & Kuk Mo Jung, 2019. "A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 1902, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    7. Altermatt, Lukas & Iwasaki, Kohei & Wright, Randall, 2021. "Asset pricing in monetary economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Seungduck Lee & Kuk Mo Jung, 2020. "A Liquidity‐Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1397-1433, September.
    9. Kim, Duhyeong, 2023. "International effects of quantitative easing and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Christopher J. Waller, 2015. "Microfoundations of Money: Why They Matter," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 289-301.
    11. Carli, Francesco & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2021. "Real consequences of open market operations: The role of limited commitment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "Negative interest rates, capital flows and exchange rates," ECON - Working Papers 351, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    13. Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Cathy, Zhang, 2018. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Migration in a Currency Union," MPRA Paper 83754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Michael Choi & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2021. "Money Mining and Price Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 246-294, October.
    15. Guillaume Rocheteau & Lucie Lebeau & Tai-Wei Hu & Younghwan In, 2018. "Gradual Bargaining in Decentralized Asset Markets," Working Papers 181904, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    16. Ayman Mnasri & Beverly Lapham, 2023. "A competitive search approach to exchange rate pass-through," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(1), pages 153-201, July.
    17. Daisuke Ikeda, 2022. "Digital Money as a Medium of Exchange and Monetary Policy in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    18. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2023. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    19. Chao Gu & Han Han & Randall Wright, 2016. "The Effects of Monetary Policy and Other Announcements," Working Papers 1621, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    20. Wang, Chenxi, 2023. "A model of international currency with private information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Lukas Altermatt & Kohei Iwasaki & Randall Wright, 2023. "General Equilibrium with Multiple Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 267-291, December.
    22. Dominguez, Begona & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2023. "Accessing U.S. Dollar Swap Lines: Macroeconomic Implications for a Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 118293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Hendrickson, Joshua R. & Park, Jaevin, 2021. "The case against eliminating large denomination bills," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    24. Luis Araujo & Leo Ferraris, 2021. "Societal Benefit of Multiple Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2201-2214, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiple Currencies; Counterfeiting Threat; Liquidity; Exchange Rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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