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A Fundamental Theory of Exchange Rates and Direct Currency Trades

  • Allen Head
  • Shouyong Shi

In this paper we construct a two-country search model to determine the nominal exchange rate between two fiat monies. Our model allows agents to use any currency to trade for goods in all countries. However, search frictions restrict agents opportunities for instantaneous arbitrage, and hence make the nominal exchange rate determinate. The nominal exchange rate depends on the two countries economic fundamentals, including the stocks and growth rates of the two monies. Direct exchanges between currencies are essential and they imply a nominal exchange rate that is different from the relative price between the two currencies in the goods markets. There are persistent violations of the law of one price and purchasing power parity in equilibrium, despite the fact that prices are perfectly flexible and all goods are tradeable between countries. Nominal and real exchange rates can move together in the steady state in response to money growth shocks.

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File URL: http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/UT-ECIPA-SHOUYONG-03-01.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number shouyong-03-01.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:shouyong-03-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: 150 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario
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  1. Shi Shougong, 1995. "Money and Prices: A Model of Search and Bargaining," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 467-496, December.
  2. Trejos, Alberto & Wright, Randall, 1995. "Search, Bargaining, Money, and Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 118-41, February.
  3. Shi Shouyong, 1997. "Search for a Monetary Propagation Mechanism," Working Papers 966, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  5. Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May.
  6. Li, Yiting & Wright, Randall, 1998. "Government Transaction Policy, Media of Exchange, and Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 290-313, August.
  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1993. "A Search-Theoretic Approach to Monetary Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 63-77, March.
  8. Shouyong Shi, 1996. "A Divisible Search Model of Fiat Money," Working Papers 930, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. Craig, B. & Waller, C.J., 1999. "Currency Portfolios and Nominal Exchange Rates in a Dual Currency Search Economy," Papers 9916, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  10. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy," Working Papers 958, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  13. Shi, Shouyong, 1999. "Search, inflation and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 81-103, August.
  14. Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Peck, James, 1990. "Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 559-74, August.
  15. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  16. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-54, August.
  17. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Toward a Theory of International Currency," Discussion Papers 931, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  18. Edward J. Green & Ruilin Zhou, 1996. "A Rudimentary Random-Matching Model with Divisible Money and Prices," GE, Growth, Math methods 9606001, EconWPA, revised 25 Jul 1996.
  19. Zhou, Ruilin, 1997. "Currency Exchange in a Random Search Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 289-310, April.
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