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Open-economy Macroeconomics: Developments In Theory And Policy

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  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

This paper surveys recent research in open-economy macroeconomics, using questions raised by European economic and monetary unification to guide the topics discussed. A striking empirical regularity is the tendency for changes in the nominal exchange rate regime systematically to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike. This regularity (which disappears in high-inflation conditions) can be explained by sticky-price theories or by models of asset-market liquidity effects. But plausible liquidity models have difficulty generating enough persistence (in output and real exchange rates, in particular) to match the data. Thus the macroeconomic costs of giving up the exchange-rate realignment option, emphasized in Mundell's optimum currency area concept, seem empirically relevant. The paper discusses other possible costs of currency unification associated with a reduced number of asset markets. On the benefit side, our theories of the efficiences due to a common currency remain unsatisfactory, despite recent advances. A key motivation for the choice of a common currency over a fixed exchange rate between national currencies is the fear of speculative attack. The paper concludes by showing how self-fulfilling currency crises can occur, and describes recent progress in narrowing the range of multiple equilibria in adjustable-peg regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Open-economy Macroeconomics: Developments In Theory And Policy," Working Paper 958, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    23. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-72, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    2. Head, Allen & Shi, Shouyong, 2003. "A fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1555-1591, October.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    4. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 1998. "Establishing a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 6791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Qing Liu & Shouyong Shi, 2010. "Currency Areas And Monetary Coordination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 813-836, August.
    6. Grade Grade, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Case of Peru," Research Department Publications 3063, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sveinn Agnarsson & Axel Hall & Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson & Sigurður Ingólfsson & Gylfi Magnússon & Gylfi Zoega, 1999. "EMU and the Icelandic labour market," Economics wp03, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. repec:idb:brikps:391 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
    12. Chen, Shikuan, 2000. "Endogenous real exchange rate fluctuations in an optimizing open economy model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 185-205, April.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; EMU;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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