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Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy under Pegged Exchange Rates and Effects of Money on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

  • Ohanian, Lee E
  • Stockman, Alan C

This paper examines the effects of money supply changes on exchange rates, interest rates, and production in an optimizing two-country model in which some sectors of the economy have predetermined nominal prices in the short run and other sectors have flexible prices. Money supply shocks have liquidity effects both within and across countries and induce a cross-country real-interest differential. The model predicts that liquidity effects are highly nonlinear and are not likely to be captured well empirically by linear models, particularly those involving only a single country. A striking implication of the model is that countries have a significant degree of short-run independence of monetary policy even under pegged exchange rates. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 783-806

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:29:y:1997:i:4:p:783-806
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-80, December.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  3. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August.
  4. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 122, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1986. "Sticky Goods Prices, Flexible Asset Prices, Monopolistic Competition, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 385-405, July.
  6. Charles Engel, 1991. "Is real exchange rate variability caused by relative price changes? An empirical investigation," Research Working Paper 91-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  8. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
  9. Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Real Exchange Rate Variability Under Pegged And Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory," RCER Working Papers 128, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  10. Alan C. Stockman, 1993. "International Transmission under Bretton Woods," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 317-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  14. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  15. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "A Monetary Equilibrium Model with Transactions Costs," NBER Working Papers 0978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
  17. Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1990. "The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run," NBER Working Papers 3468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
  19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
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