IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v50y2003i7p1555-1591.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades

Author

Listed:
  • Head, Allen
  • Shi, Shouyong

Abstract

In this paper we construct a two-country search monetary model to determine the nominal exchange rate between two fiat monies. Our model imposes natural restrictions on agents' opportunities for arbitrage. These restrictions bind when the gross growth rates of the two currency stocks exceed the discount factor. In this case the nominal exchange rate is determinate and depends on economic fundamentals of the two countries' economies, including the stocks and growth rates of the two monies. The model generates essential, direct currency-for-currency exchanges, which imply a nominal exchange rate that is different from the relative price between the two currencies in the goods markets. Unless the stocks of the two monies remain constant, there are persistent violations of the law of one price and purchasing power parity in equilibrium despite the fact that prices are perfectly flexible and all goods are tradeable between countries. Nominal and real exchange rates can move together in the steady state in response to money growth shocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Head, Allen & Shi, Shouyong, 2003. "A fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1555-1591, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:50:y:2003:i:7:p:1555-1591
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3932(03)00091-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. Shouyong Shi, 1997. "A Divisible Search Model of Fiat Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 75-102, January.
    3. Shi Shougong, 1995. "Money and Prices: A Model of Search and Bargaining," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 467-496, December.
    4. Ben R. Craig & Christopher J. Waller, 1999. "Currency portfolios and nominal exchange rates in a dual currency search economy," Working Paper 9916, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Shi, Shouyong, 1998. "Search for a Monetary Propagation Mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 314-352, August.
    6. Li, Yiting & Wright, Randall, 1998. "Government Transaction Policy, Media of Exchange, and Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 290-313, August.
    7. Ruilin Zhou, 1997. "Currency Exchange in a Random Search Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 289-310.
    8. Green, Edward J. & Zhou, Ruilin, 1998. "A Rudimentary Random-Matching Model with Divisible Money and Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 252-271, August.
    9. Trejos, Alberto & Wright, Randall, 1995. "Search, Bargaining, Money, and Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 118-141, February.
    10. Kiminori Matsuyama & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Akihiko Matsui, 1993. "Toward a Theory of International Currency," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 283-307.
    11. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-954, August.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. " Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 247-275, March.
    14. Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Peck, James, 1990. "Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 559-574, August.
    15. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1993. "A Search-Theoretic Approach to Monetary Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 63-77, March.
    16. John Kareken & Neil Wallace, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-222.
    17. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    18. Shi, Shouyong, 1999. "Search, inflation and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 81-103, August.
    19. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Canadian Macro Study Group

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:50:y:2003:i:7:p:1555-1591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.