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Exchange Rate Volatility and the extent of Currency Substitution in Nigeria

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Listed:
  • Yinusa, D. Olalekan
  • Akinlo, A.E.

Abstract

This study tests for the existence of currency substitution and attempts to gauge its magnitude in Nigeria. The analysis was based on a multi-perspective unrestricted portfolio balance model. The stock of foreign currency deposits in Nigeria and the ratio of deposits denominated in foreign currency in the domestic banking system to deposits denominated in the domestic currency were modelled. First, the study revealed the presence of currency substitution in the domestic banking system in Nigeria. A major factor driving this process was exchange rate volatility especially real parallel market exchange rate volatility. Also, the study demonstrates that currency substitution in Nigeria was low during the period under review and as such classified Nigeria as moderately dollarized economy. Subsequently, alternative policy options for curtailing currency substitution in Nigeria were explored. The study concludes that currency substitution is an element of Nigerians’ behaviour concerning wealth allocation and as such macroeconomic policies that ensure long periods of low inflation and exchange rate stability become the most powerful policy option that could help stabilize or reduce currency substitution. Also very paramount are the development of domestic financial markets with relevant infrastructural facilities and the development of new financial instruments, which will serve as alternatives to holding money in the domestic economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinusa, D. Olalekan & Akinlo, A.E., 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the extent of Currency Substitution in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 16257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16257
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16257/1/MPRA_paper_16257.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier.
    2. Luboš Komárek & Martin Melecký, 2003. "Currency Substitution in a Transitional Economy with an Application to the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 72-99, July.
    3. Miguel A Savastano, 1996. "Dollarization in Latin America; Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 96/4, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Joannes Mongardini & Johannes Mueller, 2000. "Ratchet Effects in Currency Substitution: An Application to the Kyrgyz Republic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-3.
    5. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don E, 1981. "Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 12-30, February.
    6. Mizen, Paul & Pentecost, Eric J, 1994. "Evaluating the Empirical Evidence for Currency Substitution: A Case Study of the Demand for Sterling in Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1057-1069, September.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Edgar L. Feige & Michael Faulend & Velimir Sonje & Vedran Sosic, 2001. "Currency Substitution, Unoffical Dollarization and Estimates of Foreign Currency Held Abroad: The Case of Croatia," International Finance 0106001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    3. Yinusa, D. Olalekan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Deposit Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data," MPRA Paper 16259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    4. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Obinwata, Bede & OWURU, Joel & FARAYIBI, Adesoji, 2016. "Exchange Rate Trends and Export Performance in Nigeria: A Descriptive Approach," MPRA Paper 75526, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2016.
    7. Maria Semenova & Andrey Shapkin, 2016. "Currency Shifts as a Market Discipline Device: The Case of the Russian Market for Personal Deposits," HSE Working papers WP BRP 57/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. repec:eee:riibaf:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:467-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hisao Kumamoto & Masao Kumamoto, 2014. "Does Currency Substitution Affect Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 698-704.
    10. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:159-184 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand for money; Exchange Rate Volatility; Currency Substitution; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Nigeria;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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