Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions
This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), and in the United States. Both the long- and short-term causalities between these variables are explored using monthly data. The paper also endeavors to answer the question of whether the linkages between the analyzed economic variables are of similar intensity and direction in old and new EU member countries, and whether or how relationships have changed. The results show much stronger causality in countries with developed capital and foreign-exchange markets (i.e., old EU member countries and the United States). Evidence also suggests more powerful long- and short-term causal relations during the 1993-2003 period than during 1970-92. Causalities seem to be predominantly unidirectional, with the direction running from stock prices to exchange rates. Finally, we detected strong relations when applying the real effective exchange rate than the nominal effective exchange rate.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Publication status:||Published in Finance a úvěr - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance 3-4.55(2005): pp. 141-161|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
- Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985.
"The specification and influence of asset markets,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805
- William H. Branson & Dale W. Henderson, 1984. "The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 1283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
- Bala Ramasamy & Matthew C.H. Yeung, 2005. "The Causality Between Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Revisited," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 162-169, 06.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
- Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
- Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-149, March.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
- Martin Eichenbaum & Kenneth I. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 91-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, 06.
- Ajayi, Richard A. & Friedman, Joseph & Mehdian, Seyed M., 1998. "On the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates: Tests of granger causality," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 241-251.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
- Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
- John M. Griffin & Rene M. Stulz, 1997. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 6243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)