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Causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Alagidede
  • Theodore Panagiotidis
  • Xu Zhang

Abstract

This article investigates the nature of the causal linkage between stock markets and foreign exchange markets in Australia, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and UK from January 1992 to December 2005. Recently developed cointegration tests are employed and no evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables is found. Three variations of the Granger causality test are carried out and causality from exchange rates to stock prices is found for Canada, Switzerland, and UK; weak causality in the other direction is found only for Switzerland. The Hiemstra-Jones test is used to examine possible non-linear causality and the results indicate causality from stock prices to exchange rates in Japan and weak causality of the reverse direction in Switzerland.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis & Xu Zhang, 2011. "Causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 67-86.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:67-86
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2011.538186
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from the banking crisis of 2007–2010," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 87-103.
    2. Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2016. "Nonlinear Dependence between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 74336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kabir, Sarkar Humayun & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Dynamic Integration of Domestic Equity Price, Foreign Equity Price and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 57007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "Linear and nonlinear causality in the UK housing market: a regional approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 288-297.
    5. Sinan Esen & Feyyaz Zeren & Halil Şimdi, 2015. "CDS and Stock Market: Panel Evidence Under Cross-Section Dependency," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 31-46.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hamisu Sadi ALI & Mansur IDRIS & Yusuf Ibrahim KOFARMATA, 2015. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates Dynamics in South Africa: An application of Asymmetric Co-integration Approach," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 165-172, September.
    9. repec:eee:mulfin:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:92-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gideon Boako & Maurice Omane-Adjepong & Joseph Magnus Frimpong, 2016. "Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Nexus in Ghana: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 149-179, March.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    12. repec:fis:journl:180105 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9388-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; stock prices; exchange rates; Hiemstra-Jones test; non-parametric causality;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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