Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States
This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU-member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU-member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) and in the USA. Both the long-run and short run causalities between these variables are explored using monthly data. The paper also tries to answer the question whether the linkages between analyzed economic variables are of the similar intensity and direction in the old and new part of the EU and how has been the relationship changing over the analyzed period. The results show much stronger causality in countries with developed capital and foreign exchange markets (old EU-member countries and the USA) than in the new-comes. Evidence also suggests more powerful long-run as well as short-run causal relations in the period 1993-2003 than during 1970- 1992. Causalities seem to be predominantly unidirectional with a direction running from stock prices to exchange rates. Finally, we also detected the real effective exchange rate as a more suitable variable than nominal effective exchange rate for such kind of analysis.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John M. Griffin & Rene M. Stulz, 1997.
"International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
6243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-41.
- Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992.
"Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
- Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
- Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986.
"Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?,"
NBER Working Papers
1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Eichenbaum & Kenneth I. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 91-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Chamberlain, Sandra & Howe, John S. & Popper, Helen, 1997. "The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 871-892, June.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985.
"The specification and influence of asset markets,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805
- Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998.
"A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
- Bala Ramasamy & Matthew C.H. Yeung, 2005. "The Causality Between Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Revisited," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 162-169, 06.
- Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
- Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, 06.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0406006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.