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Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test and a Combined Cointegration Approach

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  • Turgut Türsoy

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Near East University, Near East Boulevard, 99138 Nicosia, North Cyprus, Mersin 10 Turkey)

Abstract

This paper investigates the interaction between stock prices and real exchange rates by applying monthly data from Turkey for the period between January 2001 and September 2016. This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM) in order to investigate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The evidence reveals that there is a strong long-run cointegration. The robustness of the ARDL bounds test cointegration was confirmed using the newly-developed combined cointegration, which also provided the same evidence for a strong long-run relationship. The Granger causality test results indicate a long-run bidirectional causality between stock prices and real exchange rates, and also a unidirectional causality from the real exchange rates to the stock prices in the short-run. In order to analyze the validity and reliability of the test results, diagnostic tests were applied in both the short-run and long-run models.

Suggested Citation

  • Turgut Türsoy, 2017. "Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test and a Combined Cointegration Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:8-:d:91783
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    2. Tursoy, Turgut, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between Financial Development and the Energy Demand in North Cyprus: Evidence from ARDL Bounds and Combine Cointegration Tests," MPRA Paper 88324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    7. Tursoy, Turgut, 2018. "Risk management process in banking industry," MPRA Paper 86427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sujoy Das & Avijit Debanth, 2023. "Impact of CO2 emission on life expectancy in India: an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test approach," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Gulshan Kumar & Shallu Batra, 2023. "Interrelationship Between Human Development, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidences from Indian Economy," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 17(1), pages 60-81, April.
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    11. Turgut Tursoy, 2019. "The interaction between stock prices and interest rates in Turkey: empirical evidence from ARDL bounds test cointegration," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, December.

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