Modelling the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets
This paper examines the linkages between US and Latin American the stock markets during the 1995-2002 period using recently-developed cointegration techniques that allow for structural shifts in the long-run relationship. Our results suggest that, if we apply conventional cointegration tests, we only find a long-run relationship in the cases of Brazil and Mexico for the Dow Jones (DJ) index and in the case of Brazil for the Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500) index. In contrast, if we introduce the possibility of structural breaks, we find strong evidence in favour of such relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Venezuelan indices and the DJ index after the 1998 financial turmoil, and between the Brazilian and Mexican indices and the DJ index before such turbulence, while some marginal cointegration is detected between the Mexican and DJ indices from February 1998. Additionally, we find evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Mexican indices and the SP500 index from August 1998, April 1999 and October 1999, respectively, and between the Brazilian and the SP500 indices before November 1997, as well as some marginal cointegration between the Mexican and SP500 indices before October 1999. The results suggest that the gains from international diversification for investors with long holding periods is limited.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 318-327, August.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Caporale, G. M. & Pittis, N., 1998. "Cointegration and predictability of asset prices1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 441-453, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
RCER Working Papers
335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Janakiramanan, Sundaram & Lamba, Asjeet S., 1998. "An empirical examination of linkages between Pacific-Basin stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 155-173, June.
- Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996.
" Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-86, July.
- G. Andrew Karoly & Rene Stulz, . "Why do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Research in Financial Economics 9603, Ohio State University.
- Hamori, Shigeyuki & Tokihisa, Akira, 1997. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of a variance shift1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 245-253, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992.
"Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- John Ammer & Jianping Mei, 1993.
"Measuring international economic linkages with stock market data,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
449, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. " Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-63, December.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992.
"Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
- Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- DeFusco, Richard A & Geppert, John M & Tsetsekos, George P, 1996. "Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 343-63, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2002-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.