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Modelling evolving long-run relationships: the linkages between stock markets in asia

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  • José L. Fernández-Serrano
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

This paper examines the linkages between the stock markets in Asia during the 1977-1999 period using recently-developed cointegration techniques that allow for structural shifts in the long-run relationship. Our results suggest that, if we apply conventional cointegration tests, we do not find evidence of a long run relationship between the Asian stock markets. In contrast, if we introduce the possibility of structural breaks, we find strong evidence in favour of such relationship between the Taiwanese and Japanese indices from October 1987, while some marginal cointegration is detected between Singapore and Japan until February of 1992 and between Korea and Japan from April 1987.

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  • José L. Fernández-Serrano & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Modelling evolving long-run relationships: the linkages between stock markets in asia," Working Papers 2000-11, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2000-11
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    1. Gupta, Rakesh & Guidi, Francesco, 2012. "Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-22.
    2. Kasman Adnan & Vardar Gülin & Okan Berna & Aksoy Gökçe, 2009. "The Turkish Stock Market Integration with Developed and Emerging Countries' Stock Markets: Evidence from Cointegration Tests with and without Regime Shifts," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 24-49, May.
    3. Swee Ling OH & Evan LAU & Chin Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR, 2010. "Volatility Co Movement Of Asean 5 Equity Markets," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 23-30.
    4. Nildag Basak Ceylan, 2006. "The Effects of G-7 Countries’ Stock Markets on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(32), pages 37-56.
    5. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "Enter the dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific equity markets, 1995–2010," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 521-541.
    6. Kim-Leng Goh & Yoke-Chen Wong & Kim-Lian Kok, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Intertemporal Linkages Across the ASEAN-5 Stock Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 359-377, June.
    7. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Wong, Ying-Chiu & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2008. "International linkages of the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 601-621, December.
    8. Tam, Pui Sun, 2014. "A spatial–temporal analysis of East Asian equity market linkages," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 304-327.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Mishra, Sagarika, 2013. "Has the structural break slowed down growth rates of stock markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 595-601.
    10. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Pedro Rodriguez, 2010. "Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2081-2089.
    11. Mahfuzul Haque & Imen Kouki, 2009. "Effect of 9/11 on the conditional time-varying equity risk premium: evidence from developed markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276, May.
    12. Saadet Kirbas Kasman, 2006. "The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(32), pages 1-10.
    13. Apostolakis, George, 2016. "Spreading crisis: Evidence of financial stress spillovers in the Asian financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 542-551.
    14. Melike E. Bildirici & Mehmet Salman, 2006. "Measuring Default Risk in Turkey: Econometric Approach," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(32), pages 11-36.
    15. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets: common stochastic trends and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 991-1004.
    16. Majeed, Ayesha & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "A study of long- run theoretical relationship between ASEAN stock market indices and developed stock market indices of US and Japan," MPRA Paper 79724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Zheng Yi & Chen Heng & Wing-Keung Wong, 2009. "China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    18. Hüseyin Dağli; & Uğur Sivri & Semra Bank, 2012. "International portfolio diversification opportunities between Turkey and other emerging markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 4-23.
    19. Heng Chen & Russell Smyth & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Is being a super-power more important than being your close neighbour? A study of what moves the Australian stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 733-747.
    20. Click, Reid W. & Plummer, Michael G., 2005. "Stock market integration in ASEAN after the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 5-28, February.

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