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Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia

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  • R. Smyth
  • M. Nandha

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using daily data over a six-year period from 1995 to 2001. Both the Engle-Granger two-step and Johansen cointegration methods suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between these two financial variables in any of the four countries. Granger causality tests find that there is uni-directional causality running from exchange rates to stock prices in India and Sri Lanka, but in Bangladesh and Pakistan exchange rates and stock prices are independent.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:11:p:699-704
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000133282
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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