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Modeling the Turkish Broad Money Demand

  • Defne Mutluer
  • Yasemin Barlas

This paper analyzes broad money demand in Turkey between 1987 and 2001, a period characterized by a process of financial sector liberalization, implemented using various structural reforms and deregulations. It presents the historical background and the pace of liberalization, accompanied by a discussion on main economic indicators. It gives a brief summary on theory for the analysis of money demand and constructs an error correction model for M2X using quarterly data, where the long run relationship is established using real income, interest rate on deposits, interest rate on government securities, inflation rate and real exchange rate. The results show that, both exchange rate and inflation rate have substantial impact on the Turkish broad money demand.

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File URL: https://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/cbr/index.php/cbreview/article/view/321/281
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Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 55-75

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Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:2:y:2002:i:2:p:55-75
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  1. Oguz Atuk & Beyza Pinar Ural, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 21-37.
  2. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "A Cointegration Analysis of Broad Money Demand in Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 01/26, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  7. Hatanaka, Michio, 1996. "Time-Series-Based Econometrics: Unit Roots and Co-integrations," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773535, March.
  8. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, March.
  9. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Money demand, financial liberalization and currency substitution in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(5), pages 514-534, October.
  10. Neil R. Ericsson & Sunil Sharma, 1996. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
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