Testing for Causality in Mean and Variance between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Application to the Major Central and Eastern European Countries
The aim of this paper is to investigate the presence of a causality relationship between the stock market and the foreign exchange market in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Turkey. We first analyze the existence of structural breaks in the variance of stock and foreign exchange rate returns series. Then, we employ the causality-in-mean/variance test proposed by Hong (2001). Our empirical results suggest that stock markets Granger-cause foreign exchange markets for all the countries in both mean and variance. Therefore, it can be said that the stock market has an important role in the price discovery process for the foreign exchange market for the countries in question.
Volume (Year): 63 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Angelos Kanas, 2000.
"Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence,"
Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3-4), pages 447-467.
- Angelos Kanas, 2000. "Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 447-467.
- Pantelidis, Theologos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality in variance in the presence of causality in mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 201-207, November.
- Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, 06.
- Aragó, Vicent & Salvador, Enrique, 2011. "Sudden changes in variance and time varying hedge ratios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 393-403, December.
- Kamel malik Bensafta, 2010. "Non-stationary Variance and Volatility Causality," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2920-2935.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001.
"Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics,"
University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics
0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-65, CIRANO.
- Urbain, J. P., 1989. "Model selection criteria and granger causality tests : An empirical note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 317-320.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
- Andreu Sansó & Vicent Aragó & Josep Lluís Carrion, 2003. "Testing for Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Financial Time Series," DEA Working Papers 5, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
- D van Dijk & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004.
"Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
45, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- van Dijk, Dick & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2005. "Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 193-199, November.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2004. "Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-48, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Sheng-Yung Yang & Shuh-Chyi Doong, 2004. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence from the G-7 Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 139-153, August.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
- Elena Fedorova & Kashif Saleem, 2010. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Currency Markets: Evidence from Emerging Eastern Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 519-533, December.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2002. "Testing for Causality-in-Variance: An Application to the East Asian Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 235-45, July.
- Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
- Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "A Lagrange multiplier test for causality in variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-141, October.
- Smith, C. E., 1992. "Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 607-629.
- Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-49, March.
- Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Bradley T. Ewing & Farooq Malik, 2010. "Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1023, November.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Angel Pardo & Hip�lit Torró, 2007. "Trading with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9-10), pages 1548-1568.
- Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
- Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
- Mahmod Qadan & Joseph Yagil, 2012. "Fear sentiments and gold price: testing causality in-mean and in-variance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 363-366, March.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Wang, Kuan-Min & Nguyen Thi, Thanh-Binh, 2007. "Testing for contagion under asymmetric dynamics: Evidence from the stock markets between US and Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 422-432.
- Panagiotis Mantalos & Ghazi Shukur, 2010. "The effect of spillover on the Granger causality test," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1473-1486.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:1:p:65-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.