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Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks

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  • D van Dijk
  • D R Osborn
  • M Sensier

Abstract

We examine the size properties of tests for causality in variance in the presence of structural breaks in volatility. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these tests suffer from severe size distortions when such breaks are not taken into account. Pre-testing the series for structural changes in volatility is shown to largely remedy the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • D van Dijk & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 45, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:45
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    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr45.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rubia, Antonio, 2007. "Testing for causality in variance under nonstationarity in variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 133-137, November.
    2. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    3. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2009. "La curva de rendimiento y su relación con la actividad económica: una aplicación para México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 297-357, octubre-d.
    4. Gebka, Bartosz & Serwa, Dobromil, 2007. "Intra- and inter-regional spillovers between emerging capital markets around the world," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-221, June.
    5. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    6. Korkmaz, Turhan & Çevik, Emrah İ. & Atukeren, Erdal, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers among CIVETS stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 230-252.
    7. Pablo Mendieta & Sergio Cerezo & Javier Cossio, 2009. "¿La inflación está de vuelta en Sudamérica?: choques exógenos, expectativas y credibilidad de la política monetaria," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 359-389, octubre-d.
    8. Bekiros, Stelios & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "The multiscale causal dynamics of foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 282-305.
    9. Theologos Pantelidis, 2015. "Testing for causality in the presence of leading variables," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 17-29.
    10. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    12. Grote, Claudia & Bertram, Philip, 2015. "A comparative Study of Volatility Breaks," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-558, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "Una nota sobre las volatilidades de la tasa de interés y del tipo de cambio según diferentes instrumentos de política monetaria: México 1998-2008," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 391-412, octubre-d.
    14. Javier Pereda, 2009. "Estimación de la curva de rendimiento para el Perú y su uso para el análisis monetario," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 413-450, octubre-d.
    15. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-113.
    16. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. González, Mariano, 2016. "Asymmetric causality in-mean and in-variance among equity markets indexes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 49-68.
    18. Sinem Derindere KOSEOGLU & Emrah Ismail CEVIK, 2013. "Testing for Causality in Mean and Variance between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Application to the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 65-86, March.
    19. Okur, Mustafa & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2013. "Testing intraday volatility spillovers in Turkish capital markets: evidence from ISE," MPRA Paper 71477, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    20. Stelios Bekiros, 2014. "Timescale Analysis with an Entropy-Based Shift-Invariant Discrete Wavelet Transform," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 231-251, August.
    21. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2012. "International market links and volatility transmission," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 117-141.
    22. Güloğlu, Bülent & Kaya, Pınar & Aydemir, Resul, 2016. "Volatility transmission among Latin American stock markets under structural breaks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 330-340.
    23. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "A Note on the Volatilities of the Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate Under Different Monetary Policy Instruments: Mexico 1998-2008," Working Papers 2009-10, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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