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The Great Moderation: Updated Evidence with Joint Tests for Multiple Structural Changes in Variance and Persistence

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  • Perron, Pierre
  • Yamamoto, Yohei
  • 山本, 庸平

Abstract

We assess the empirical evidence about the Great Moderation using a comprehensive framework to test for multiple structural changes in the coeffcients and in the variance of the error term of a linear regression model provided by Perron, Yamamoto, and Zhou (2019). We apply it to U.S. real GDP and its major components for the period 1960:1 to 2018:4. A notable feature of our approach is that we adopt an unobserved component model, allowing for two breaks in the trend function in 1973:1 and 2008:1, in order to obtain a stationary or cyclical component modelled as an autoregressive process. First, we confirm evidence about the Great Moderation, i.e., a structural change in variance of the errors in the mid-80s for the various series. Second, additional breaks in variance are found in 1970:3 for GDP and production (goods), after which the sample standard deviation increased by three times. Hence, a part of the Great Moderation can be viewed as a reversion to the pre-70s level of volatility. Third, the evidence about systematic changes in the sum of the autoregressive coefficients (a measure of persistence) is weak over the whole sample period. Finally, we find little evidence of structural changes occurring in both the variance and the coeffcients following the Great Recession (2007-2008). These results support views emphasizing the "good luck" hypothesis as a source of the Great Moderation, which continues even after the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Perron, Pierre & Yamamoto, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2019. "The Great Moderation: Updated Evidence with Joint Tests for Multiple Structural Changes in Variance and Persistence," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-90, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 676-690, September.
    2. Emilio Congregado & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2023. "Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: the case of Italy, 1861–2020," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 755-782, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    the Great Moderation; the Great Recession; multiple structural changes; joint tests; structural change; trend-cycle decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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