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Investigating causal relationship between stock return with respect to exchange rate and FII: evidence from India


  • Kumar, Sundaram


The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic parameters like Exchange rate and foreign institutional investment with stock returns in India, in particular at National Stock Exchange. I find that both stock returns and exchange rate are integrated of order one. The Engle–Granger Cointegration test is then performed, suggesting that there is not a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock returns and exchange rates at 5% significance level. Moreover, there is no evidence suggesting that there is any causality relationship from the nominal exchange rate to the stock returns. Furthermore, FII data is found to be I(0) i.e. It doesn’t have a unit root at conventional level. It also gives positive unidirectional Granger causality results i.e. stock returns Granger cause FII. No reverse causality is seen even after inserting a structural break in 2003, as some of the researchers suggest.

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  • Kumar, Sundaram, 2009. "Investigating causal relationship between stock return with respect to exchange rate and FII: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 15793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15793

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Takeshi Inoue, 2009. "The Causal Relationships in Mean and Variance between Stock Returns and Foreign Institutional Investment in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 3(4), pages 319-337, October.
    2. Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empirical Investigation based on Cross-Country Comparison," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(1), pages 75-81.
    3. Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
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    More about this item


    Unit root test; Cointegration; Granger causality; Exchange rate; Stock return; FII;

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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