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Analysis of the relationship between the share market performance and exchange rates in New Zealand: A cointegrating VAR approach

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  • James Obben
  • Andrew Pech
  • Shamim Shakur

Abstract

This study employs the cointegrating VAR approach to characterise the relationships between the five exchange rates comprising the TWI and the share market in New Zealand. Weekly data covering January 1999 to June 2006 are analysed. The study discovers there are two types of long-run relationship mimicking the portfolio balance and goods market theories. That implies there is bi-directional causality in the foreign exchange and stock markets in both the short run and long run although different exchange rates may be implicated. In the long run, the empirical results for the relationship between the NZ-US dollar exchange rate and the overall share market index support both the portfolio balance and goods market theories. In the short run, the portfolio balance theory is further supported by all the exchange rates but the goods market theory is supported significantly only by the NZ-Australian dollar exchange rate. Thus the evidence is predominantly in support of the portfolio balance theory and that the firms most at risk of foreign exchange rate exposure are those that export to Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • James Obben & Andrew Pech & Shamim Shakur, 2006. "Analysis of the relationship between the share market performance and exchange rates in New Zealand: A cointegrating VAR approach," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 147-180.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:147-180
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2006.9558559
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    Cited by:

    1. Betül Çal, 2015. "Reconciliation of Expectancy-Valence and Expectation-Disconfirmation Paradigms in Investment Decisions: Case of Turkish Equity Investors," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, January.
    2. repec:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9388-8 is not listed on IDEAS

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