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Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework

  • Michal Franta

The paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Czech Republic. The low number of observations available for fiscal variables significantly affects the setup of the analysis. Firstly, a small-scale VAR is considered. Secondly, the model is estimated using Bayesian techniques. Finally, all identification approaches that are currently employed by the literature and that are applicable to the Czech Republic are used. The estimation results suggest that the fiscal policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic exhibits some standard features (e.g., a rise in GDP and inflation after unexpected government spending, and an increase in government spending after a positive shock to government revenues). However, the uncertainty associated with the results is substantial. Furthermore, it is discussed how the identification strategy itself may represent an additional source of uncertainty of the results.

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File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2012_13.pdf
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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2012/13.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2012/13
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  1. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Effects Of Fiscal Policy Shocks In The European Transition Economies," Journal of Applied Research in Finance Bi-Annually, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(2), pages 141-157, December.
  2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
  4. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price differentials in monetary unions: The role of fiscal shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005.
  5. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
  6. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers 18467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
  10. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Eller, Markus & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2011. "The economic transmission of fiscal policy shocks from Western to Eastern Europe," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  14. Vladimir Klyuev & Stephen Snudden, 2011. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 306-326, August.
  15. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
  16. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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