IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/19481.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the European Transition Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Mirdala, Rajmund

Abstract

EU member countries are currently exposed to negative implications of the economic and financial crisis. In connection with this problem arises the question of an anti-cyclic role of an economic policy or more precisely the (regulatory) role of the government in the economy that seems to be the centre of discussions in the academic as well as economic policy sphere. The problem of a permanent deficiency of the general government budget stresses many “old” as well as “new” EU member countries. It significantly reduces an expansionary potential of the national fiscal policies. Because the economic crisis seems to be a very difficult problem due to its specific and complex features, it is necessary for the EU member countries to coordinate the process of the national stimulatory actions approving that would help the countries to avoid an undesired reallocation of resources outside the EU single market as well as the negative common competitive effects. In the paper we analyze the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak republic, Bulgaria and Romania in the period 2000-2008. Our objective is to estimate the effects of discretionary changes in fiscal policy (associated with an increase in government expenditures) as well as the role of automatic stabilizers (associated with an increase in tax revenues). To meet the objective we estimate vector autoregression (VAR) model. To check the robustness of the results we implement an identification scheme based on two approaches. The first, recursive approach, is based on the Cholesky decomposition of innovations that allows us to identify structural shocks hitting the model. The second approach, structural VAR approach, is based on applying long-run restrictions to the reduced-form VAR model. From both identified true models we compute impulse-response functions to estimate the responses of real output, inflation and short term interest rates to the government expenditure and tax revenue shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 19481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19481/1/MPRA_paper_19481.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2004. "What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 325, European Central Bank.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    4. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    5. Srđan Redžepagić & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(4), pages 489-500, December.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    7. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Shocking aspects of monetary integration (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 17057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mihai ANTONESCU & Simona MANEA & Ligia ANTONESCU, 2008. "Fiscal Aspects Regarding Taxing The Incomes Of Non�Residents In Romania," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović & Tomislav Ćorić, 2013. "Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy: Evidence of Croatia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1302, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    2. Milan Deskar Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović, 2015. "The size and determinants of fiscal multipliers in Western Balkans: comparing Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1510, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    3. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Effects of fiscal shocks in new EU members estimated from a SVARX model with debt feedback," MPRA Paper 63148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2015. "Fiscal or monetary dominance in a small, open economy with fixed exchange rate – the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 125-145.
    6. Hrvoje Simovic & Milan Deskar-Skrbic, 2013. "Dynamic effects of fiscal policy and fiscal multipliers in Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 55-78.
    7. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area (Lessons Learned from Fiscal Consolidation)," MPRA Paper 79920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    9. Tevdovski, Dragan & Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2016. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 73461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2016.
    10. Ana-Maria SÃNDICÃ, 2015. "The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(1), pages 110-124, June.
    11. Serbanoiu, Georgian Valentin, 2012. "Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy," MPRA Paper 40947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lilia Cavallari & Simone Romano, 2016. "Foresight And The Macroeconomic Impact Of Fiscal Policy: Evidence For France, Germany And Italy," Working Papers 0216, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2016.
    13. Peter Friedrich & Janno Reiljan, 2016. "Estonian Economic Policy during Global Financial Crises," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(4), pages 37-44, January.
    14. Vladimir Filipovski & Taki Fiti & Borce Trenovski, 2016. "Efficiency of the Fiscal Policy and the Fiscal Multipliers – The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 3-23.
    15. Shaig Adigozalov & Vugar Rahimov, 2015. "Institutional Quality, Cyclicality of Macroeconomic Policies and the Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from Transition Economies," IHEID Working Papers 23-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Lessons Learned from Tax versus Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 46792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; government expenditure; tax revenue; unrestricted VAR; Cholesky decomposition; SVAR; structural shocks; impulse-response function;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.