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Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy

Author

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  • Ambriško, Róbert
  • Babecký, Jan
  • Ryšánek, Jakub
  • Valenta, Vilém

Abstract

We build a DSGE model to investigate the transmission of fiscal policy to the real economy in the Czech Republic. Departing from the elements of the Czech National Bank's current g3 forecasting model (Andrle, Hlédik, Kameník, and Vlček, 2009), we introduce a comprehensive fiscal sector incorporating a number of modeling features that are often neglected in the mainstream DSGE literature, e.g. allowing government consumption and government capital to be productive. Furthermore, we extend our fiscal model to include unemployment in a way proposed by Galí, López-Salido, and Vallés (2007). Crucial fiscal parameters, related mainly to the specified fiscal rule, are estimated using Bayesian techniques. The model is then used to calculate a set of fiscal multipliers for individual revenue and expenditure items of the government budget. We find that the largest real GDP fiscal multipliers in the first year are associated with government consumption (0.6), social security contributions paid by employers (0.6), and government investment (0.5).

Suggested Citation

  • Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:350-357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.021
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    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:23-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Effects of fiscal shocks in new EU members estimated from a SVARX model with debt feedback," MPRA Paper 63148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
    5. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    6. Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jakub Rysanek, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2016/09, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    7. de Walque, Gregory & Lundvall, Henrik & Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Rysanek, Jakub & Kulikov, Dmitry & Júlio, Paulo & Lozej, Matija & Sideris, Dimitris & Maria, José R. & Micallef, Brian & Schmidt, Sebas, 2015. "Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe," Working Paper Series 1760, European Central Bank.
    8. Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Zuzana Humplova & Frantisek Kopriva & Jiri Polansky & Marek Rusnak & Jaromir Tonner, 2015. "Forecasting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 13, number rb13/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
    9. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta.
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Miroslav Klucik, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustment in Slovakia: Findings from a Medium-Scale Econometric Model," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    12. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
    13. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek.
    14. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2015. "Labor Tax Harmonization in a Multi-Country Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 192-210, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; DSGE; Fiscal multipliers; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rule; Open economy; Unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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