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Fiscal Sustainability - Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability

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  • Ales Krejdl

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to shed some light on what fiscal sustainability actually means. In doing so, it looks in the literature for a definition of fiscal sustainability that not only is theoretically sound, but can also be used for setting fiscal targets in practice. Sustainability is defined in a rather standard way - fiscal policy is said to be sustainable if the present value of future primary surpluses equals the current level of debt. This definition enables various sustainability indicators to be constructed. A good indicator of fiscal sustainability should signal, with a sufficient lead, excessive debt accumulation. The paper introduces several sustainability indicators varying in how closely they are related to the sustainability definition (the infinite and finite horizon gaps), whether they take account of the future evolution of spending (the primary gap and the tax gap) and what target value of debt is set at the end of a finite horizon. While the indicators can be used for different time horizons - from one year to an infinite horizon, the paper is by and large focused on long-term sustainability. When combined with long-term projections the indicators gauge the resilience of public finances to population ageing. The indicators are used to assess the sustainability of Czech fiscal policy. The sustainable revenue ratio, enabling the future surge in age-related spending to be financed, is estimated at 48% of GDP in the Czech Republic. It is some 7 percentage points higher than the current revenue-to-GDP ratio. The sustainable primary balance stands at 0.4% of GDP. By observing this primary surplus, governments would stabilise the debt ratio in the long run. However, compliance with this target would require immediately raising taxes or cutting spending by almost 3.0% of GDP and containing any future spending pressures (projected at 7.3% of GDP) either by systemic reforms preventing age-related spending from rising or by annual discretionary spending cuts and tax increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ales Krejdl, 2006. "Fiscal Sustainability - Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability," Working Papers 2006/3, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    3. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    4. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ales Bulir, 2004. "External and Fiscal Sustainability of the Czech Economy: A Quick Look Through the IMF's Night-Vision Goggles," Research and Policy Notes 2004/04, Czech National Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vratislav Izák, 2008. "Udržitelnost veřejných financí a dynamická efektivnost [Public finance sustainability and dynamic efficiency]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 162-181.
    2. Vojtěch Roženský, 2012. "Mandatorní výdaje a flexibilita fiskální politiky v ČR [Mandatory Expenditure and the Flexibility of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(1), pages 40-57.
    3. Adel M. EL-MAHDY & Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2009. "Debt Sustainabiliy And Economic Growth In Egypt," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    4. Mihaela Tofan & Mihaela Onofrei & Anca-Florentina Vatamanu, 2020. "Fiscal Responsibility Legal Framework—New Paradigm for Fiscal Discipline in the EU," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Michał Mackiewicz & Piotr Krajewski, 2009. "On the mechanisms of achieving fiscal (un)sustainability: the case of Poland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 445-460, November.
    6. Peter Sinclair, 2011. "Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 11-20, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    7. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Algeria: a Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 962, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    8. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "Debt sustainability, structural breaks and nonlinear fiscal adjustment: empirical evidence from Algeria," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(4), pages 369-397, December.
    9. E. A. Ndaguba & O. I. Nzewi & K. B. Shai, 2018. "Financial Imperatives and Constraints towards Funding the SADC Standby Force," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 74(2), pages 179-196, June.
    10. Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of structural breaks: Does overconfidence on resource exports hurt government’s ability to finance debt? Evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170317-117, December.
    11. Paul Ekins & Stefan Speck, 2014. "The fiscal implications of climate change and policy responses," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-374, March.
    12. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    13. George Kararach & Jacob Oduor & Edward Sennoga & Walter Odero & Peter Rasmussen & Lacina Balma, 2022. "Working Paper 365 - Public Investment Efficiency, Economic Growth and Debt Sustainability in Africa," Working Paper Series 2491, African Development Bank.
    14. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Alinska Agnieszka & Kosztowniak Aneta & Wajda Marcin, 2021. "Liabilities of Local Government Units in Poland: Identification and Analysis of Diversification Factors," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2B), pages 113-134.
    16. Zdeněk Pikhart & Lukáš Pfeifer & Pavla Chmelová, 2015. "Reakční funkce a udržitelnost fiskální politiky [Fiscal Policy Reaction Function and Sustainability]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 545-569.
    17. Pavel V. Stroev & Olga V. Pivovarova & Khasanbi V. Sheozhev & Anna I. Dudnik, 2023. "Regions with Low Financial Sustainability: Analysis and Enhancement of Development," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 26-44, February.
    18. Albu Lucian-Liviu, 2011. "Fiscal And Debt Sustainability And Growth Challenges," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 6(3), pages 5-38, December.
    19. Zdeněk Pikhart, 2013. "Možnosti hodnocení fiskální pozice a stabilizační fiskální politika [Possible Evaluation of Fiscal Position and Stabilization Fiscal Policy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(6), pages 795-813.
    20. Norbert Ouma Ondenge & Peterson Obara Magutu & Richard Nyaanga Ongeri, 2020. "Operations Modernization Strategies And Service Delivery Among Non-Commercial State Owned Ent Ities In Kenya," Noble International Journal of Social Sciences Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(5), pages 75-86, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    . Fiscal sustainability; population ageing; primary gap; sustainability indicators; tax gap.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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