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Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future

  • Peter Sinclair
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    This paper explores the issue of whether rates of interest should and do tend to exceed rates of growth, a key determinant of debt sustainability. It goes on to consider the argument for debt renegotiation in circumstances where sustainability is in grave doubt.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/11-20.pdf
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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-20.

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    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:11-20
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
    Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk

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    1. Martin Uribe, 2002. "A Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk," NBER Working Papers 9221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Elhanan Helpman, 1988. "The Simple Analytics of Debt-Equity Swaps," NBER Working Papers 2771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fernandez-Ruiz, Jorge, 2000. "Debt Buybacks, Debt Reduction, and Debt Rescheduling under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 13-27, February.
    5. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2014. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 2014-06, McMaster University.
    6. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Martin Uribe & Vivian Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    8. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    9. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Michele Tertilt, 2003. "Consumer bankruptcy: a fresh start," Working Papers 617, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. John Fender & Peter Sinclair, 2006. "On Risk Aversion and Investment: A Theoretical Approach," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 162(4), pages 601-626, December.
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Ariell Reshef & Oved Yosha, 2005. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," Working Papers 2005-04, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    12. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2010. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1983. "Incentive Effects of Terminations: Applications to the Credit and Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 912-27, December.
    14. Eli M Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2007. "Interpreting sovereign spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. Dean P. Foster & H. Peyton Young, 2010. "Gaming Performance Fees by Portfolio Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1435-1458, November.
    16. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
    18. John H. Cochrane, 2010. "Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," NBER Working Papers 16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
    20. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
    21. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
    22. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2005. "Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 5312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1990. "A Strategy for Efficient Debt Reduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 19-29, Winter.
    24. Fender, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2000. "A Theory of Credit Ceilings in a Model of Debt and Renegotiation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 235-56, July.
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