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Sovereign Defaults and Banking Crises

  • Sosa-Padilla, Cesar

Episodes of sovereign default feature three key empirical regularities in connection with the banking systems of the countries where they occur: (i) sovereign defaults and banking crises tend to happen together, (ii) commercial banks have substantial holdings of government debt, and (iii) sovereign defaults result in major contractions in bank credit and production. This paper provides a rationale for these phenomena by extending the traditional sovereign default framework to incorporate bankers that lend to both the government and the corporate sector. When these bankers are highly exposed to government debt a default triggers a banking crisis which leads to a corporate credit collapse and subsequently to an output decline. When calibrated to Argentina's 2001 default episode the model produces default on equilibrium with a frequency in line with actual default frequencies, and when it happens credit experiences a sharp contraction which generates an output drop similar in magnitude to the one observed in the data. Moreover, the model also matches several moments of the cyclical dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41074.

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Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41074
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  1. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, 04.
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2011. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
  4. Burcu Eyigungor & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2008. "Maturity, Indebtedness and Default Risk," 2008 Meeting Papers 1001, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  9. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2009. "Modeling sudden stops: The non-trivial role of preference specifications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 1-4, July.
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  12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "Debt dilution and sovereign default risk," Working Paper 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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  15. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
  16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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  18. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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  20. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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