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Measuring Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Wickens, Michael R.
  • Polito, Vito

Abstract

We propose an index of the fiscal stance that is convenient for practical use. It is based on a finite time horizon, not on an infinite time horizon like most tests. As it employs VAR analysis it is simple to compute and easily automated. We also show how it is possible to analyse a change of policy within a VAR framework. We use this methodology to examine the effect on fiscal sustainability of a change in policy. We then conduct an empirical examination of the fiscal stances of the US, the UK and Germany over the last 25 or more years, and we carry out a counter-factual analysis of the likely consequences for fiscal sustainability of using a Taylor rule to set monetary policy over this period. Among our findings are that the recent fiscal stances of all three countries are not sustainable, and that using a Taylor rule in the past would have improved the fiscal stances of the US and UK, but not that of Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2005. "Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 5312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5312
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    1. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    2. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vratislav Izák, 2008. "Udržitelnost veřejných financí a dynamická efektivnost [Public finance sustainability and dynamic efficiency]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 162-181.
    2. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    3. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Gollagari Ramakrishna & Berhanu Asefa Gizaw & Ch. Paramaiah & Robinson Joseph & Sania Khan, 2023. "Import Tariff Reduction and Fiscal Sustainability: A Macro-Econometric Modelling for Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic: the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    6. Peter Sinclair, 2011. "Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 11-20, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    7. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic : the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    8. Angela I. Uwakwe, 2008. "Public Debt Management & Fiscal Sustainability in Italy," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-20, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    9. António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Zaman, Constantin, 2011. "Assessing the Sustainability of Public Finances in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 106-115, June.
    11. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marcella Alifia Kuswana Putri & Chandra Utama & Ivantia Savitri Mokoginta, 2022. "The Impact Of Fiscal Space On Indonesia’S Fiscal Behavior," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(2), pages 235-256, August.
    14. Valentinyi, Ákos & Pápa, Levente, 2008. "Költségvetési fenntarthatóság [Budget sustainability]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 395-426.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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