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Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004

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  • Ananda Jayawickrama
  • Tilak Abeysinghe

Abstract

Recurrent large fiscal deficits and accumulating public debt frequently ring alarm bells around the world on the sustainability of U.S. federal fiscal policy. The present-value borrowing constraint, which states that, for the fiscal policy to be sustainable the current debt stock should match the discounted sum of expected future primary surpluses, provides a framework for analysing fiscal sustainability. Incorporating rational expectations we extend the methodology developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986) to test the sustainability hypothesis in a cointegrating framework that can accomodate both stationary and non-stationary variables. Our model predicts dynamically diverse episodes of the debt series extremelly well. Our results support the hypothesis that the U.S. government is solvent despite the large increase in debt stock in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:govern:21924
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D & A. A. S. Priyadarshanee, 2014. "Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(7), pages 100-108, July.
    3. Felix Kimtai Kiminyei, 2019. "Empirical Investigation on the Relationship among Kenyan Public Debt, Tax Revenue and Government Expenditure," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(1), pages 142-159, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy Sustainability; Present-value Borrowing Constraint; Rational Expectations; Cointegration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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