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Structural Breaks, Unit Roots, and Cointegration: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit


  • Raghbendra Jha
  • Anurag Sharma


If public expenditure and public revenue are I (0), public debt is sustainable, but if these are I (1) and not cointegrated or have a cointegrating vector different from [1, -1], the public debt is said to be unsustainable. Extant work indicates that India’s public debt is unsustainable. The authors reinvestigate this issue by allowing for endogenous structural breaks for two data sets—the British period from 1871-1921 and the postindependence period from 1950-1997. Revenue and expenditure series are I (1) and cointegrated with regime shifts. Hence, Indian public debt may not be unsustainable.

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  • Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2004. "Structural Breaks, Unit Roots, and Cointegration: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(2), pages 196-219, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:32:y:2004:i:2:p:196-219

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    Cited by:

    1. Warwick J. McKIBBIN, 2006. "Environmental Consequences of Rising Energy Use in China," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 157-174.
    2. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Xu-Zhao, 2014. "Is fiscal policy stationary in China? A regional study by local government," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 492-499.
    4. repec:bla:coecpo:v:35:y:2017:i:1:p:201-215 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability Of Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. Experience 1929-2004," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 05xx, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    6. Marco Tronzano, 2013. "The Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 63-76, January.
    7. Nimai Das, 2015. "Subnational level fiscal health in India: stability and sustainability implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 71-91, February.
    8. Rangarajan, C. & Srivastava, D.K., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and government debt in India: Implications for growth and stabilisation," Working Papers 05/35, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    9. repec:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:1(610):p:163-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Antra Bhatt & Claudio Sardoni, 2016. "Public Expenditure and Growth: The Indian Case," Working Papers 7/16, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    11. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    12. repec:spr:blkpoe:v:44:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s12114-017-9261-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Maurya, Nagendra Kumar, 2014. "Debt sustainability of state finances of Uttar Pradesh government," MPRA Paper 55692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Das, Panchanan, 2016. "Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Deficit, and Stability in Government Borrowing in India: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 557, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    15. Pradhan, Krishanu, 2014. "Is India's public debt sustainable?," Working Papers 311, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    16. Marco Tronzano, 2013. "The Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 63-76, January.
    17. Mei-Yin Lin, 2014. "The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 31-42, September.
    18. Sharma, Anurag & Jha, Raghbendra, 2012. "Fiscal deficits, banking crises and policy reversal in a semi-open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 271-282.
    19. Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Mori Kogid & Suriyani Muhamad & Nor Haslina Mohamad Akhir, 2011. "Fiscal Adjustment And Dynamic Economics Performance: The Case Of Malaysia," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, July.

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