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U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks

Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of U.S. fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post-shift period. In this paper, we re-examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 1/98.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1998-1
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Web page: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics
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  8. John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
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  14. Lubrano, Michel, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in a Bayesian framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-109, September.
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  18. Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes regression with autoregressive errors : A Gibbs sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 275-294, August.
  19. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1000, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  23. Eric Zivot & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "A Bayesian Analysis of Trend Determination in Economic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1002, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  24. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "On the Shape of the Likelihood/Posterior in Cointegration Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 514-551, August.
  25. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
  26. de la Croix, David & Lubrano, Michel, 1994. "Are Interest Rates Responsible for Unemployment in the Eighties ? A Bayesian Analysis of Cointegrated Relationship with a Regime Shift," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1994015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  32. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  34. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  35. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
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