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Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence

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  • António Afonso

Abstract

The sustainability of fiscal deficits has been receiving increasing attention from economists. The issue is paramount for the newly formed Euro area and this is one of the motivations of the paper. In order to assess the sustainability of budget deficits in the Euro area, stationarity tests for the stock of public debt and co-integration tests between public expenditures and public revenues are performed for the Euro countries for the 1968-1997 period. The empirical results allow us to conclude that fiscal policy may not be sustainable for most countries with the possible exceptions of Germany, Austria and the Netherlands.

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  • António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp122000
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "Unsustainable Fiscal Policies in the EU, A Legacy of the 1970s?," Economics Working Papers 1_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    2. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    4. António Afonso, 2002. "Disturbing the fiscal theory of the price level: Can it fit the eu-15?," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    5. Gollagari Ramakrishna & Berhanu Asefa Gizaw & Ch. Paramaiah & Robinson Joseph & Sania Khan, 2023. "Import Tariff Reduction and Fiscal Sustainability: A Macro-Econometric Modelling for Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    7. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Stoian, Andreea, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability of the European Welfare State: Evidence from Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance," Working Papers 27/2012, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    9. Carlos Marinheiro, 2005. "Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective," GEMF Working Papers 2005-01, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    11. Ricardo Ferraz, 2016. "Finanças Públicas Portuguesas Sustentáveis no Estado Novo (1933-1974)?," GEE Papers 0056, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    12. Jean BOISSINOT & Clotilde L’ANGEVIN & Brieuc MONFORT, 2010. "Assessing Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in France: an I(2) Analysis," EcoMod2004 330600027, EcoMod.
    13. Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 155-179, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deficit finance; inter-temporal budget constraint; fiscal policy sustainability; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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