Fiscal Sustainability of the European Welfare State: Evidence from Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance
Tanzi and Schuknecht (1997) pointed out that one of the key features of welfare state is to run large fiscal deficits and public debt. This can be explained considering the rise of the social transfers that led to an overall increase of the total government spending. Growing public debt can generate fiscal sustainability issues in the long run. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to study fiscal sustainability using an indicator named the Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance (CEPB) that avoids the shortcomings induced by non-stationary time series or Structural breaks when applying classical econometric tools. CEPB is derived from a simple Dynamic model of public debt that allows estimating the primary balance that stabilizes public debt. Applying CEPB for annual data extracted for 1980-2007 period for two distinct European welfare regimes, we find that the Nordic welfare states are less exposed to fiscal Sustainability issues in the long run than the Conservative countries.
|Date of creation:||12 Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universidade Portucalense – Economics and Management Department (CIGE – Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia), Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 541-619, 4200 – 072 Porto, Portugal|
Web page: http://www.uportu.pt/site-scripts/centro_pagina.asp?codmenu=71&codcentro=24
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991.
"Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
- Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael, 2000.
" Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
- Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael R., 1997. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 1996. "Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis," Research Paper 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo Group Munich.
- Barr, Nicholas, 1992. "Economic Theory and the Welfare State: A Survey and Interpretation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 741-803, June.
- Antonio Afonso, 2004.
"Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004
57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
- Graham Elliott & Colm Kearney, 1988. "The Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint and Tests for Bubbles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8809, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Alberto Alesina, 2000. "The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 3-19, Summer.
- Jocelyn Horne, 1991. "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 91/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Alfred Greiner & Uwe Koeller & Willi Semmler, 2005. "Testing Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy. Evidence for the Period 1960 – 2003," CESifo Working Paper Series 1386, CESifo Group Munich.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:cigewp:2012_027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luis Pacheco)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.