IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1386.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy. Evidence for the Period 1960 – 2003

Author

Listed:
  • Alfred Greiner
  • Uwe Koeller
  • Willi Semmler

Abstract

In this paper we test whether German public debt has been sustainable by resorting to a test proposed by Bohn (1998). We apply non-parametric and semi-parametric regressions with time depending coefficients. This test shows that the mean of the coefficient relevant for sustainability has been significantly positive over the time period considered. However, there is a negative trend in that coefficient which seems to have ceased to decline only in the middle to late 1990s. Further, we find evidence that the response of the primary deficit is a U-shaped function of the debt ratio which first declines and then rises after a certain threshold of the debt ratio is exceeded.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Greiner & Uwe Koeller & Willi Semmler, 2005. "Testing Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy. Evidence for the Period 1960 – 2003," CESifo Working Paper Series 1386, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1386.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    3. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    6. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    7. Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 1999. "An Inquiry into the Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy: Some Time-Series Tests," Public Finance Review, , vol. 27(2), pages 220-236, March.
    8. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    9. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler & Malte Sieveking, 2005. "Creditworthiness and thresholds in a credit market model with multiple equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 287-315, February.
    10. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    11. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-135, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Semmler, Willi & Greiner, Alfred & Diallo, Bobo & Rezai, Armon & Rajaram, Anand, 2007. "Fiscal policy, public expenditure composition, and growth theory and empirics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4405, The World Bank.
    2. Ngwa Edielle, T. H. Jackson, 2006. "Soutenabilité des finances publiques au Cameroun : Approche de Bohn (1998)
      [Testing Fiscal sustainability in Cameroon : Approach of Bohn (1998)]
      ," MPRA Paper 9738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wolfgang Kitterer, 2007. "Nachhaltige Finanz- und Investitionspolitik der Bundesländer," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 53-83, April.
    4. Jafri, Sabina Khurram, 2009. "External Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Medium Term: A Case Study," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 363-382.
    5. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    6. Christian Schoder & Christian R. Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2011. "Are Current Account Imbalances Between EMU Countries Sustainable? Evidence from Parametric and Non-Parametric Tests," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2011-6, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    7. Stoian, Andreea, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability of the European Welfare State: Evidence from Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance," Working Papers 27/2012, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; intertemporal budget constraint; varying coefficient model; non-parametric estimation;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.