IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Does Wagner's law ruin the sustainability of German public finances?

  • Priesmeier, Christoph
  • Koester, Gerrit B.

The empirical and theoretical literature on long-term relationships in public finance is dominated by two approaches: Fiscal sustainability and Wagner's law of an increasing state activity. In this paper, we argue that these two relationships should be analyzed simultaneously and not separately. We show how Wagner's law might influence fiscal sustainability and how the interaction of the two can be modelled using vector error correction models that include public expenditures, revenues and GDP. For Germany, we find strong evidence for Wagner's law throughout the whole period analyzed (1960-2007), while our results indicate sustainability of public finances only until 1973. We show that, for the period after 1973, it is the interaction of permanent expenditure increases and revenue reductions resulting from fiscal policy reactions to the oil crisis and Wagner's law that ruins the sustainability of public finances in Germany. Our findings underline the importance of the German debt brake for re-establishing sustainable public finances even under Wagner's law.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57779/1/71512143X.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 08/2012.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:082012
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt

Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2002. "A Multivariate Approach to the Growth of Governments," Public Finance Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 56-76, January.
  2. Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael, 2000. " Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
  3. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP.
  4. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
  5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  6. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Silika Prohl, 2006. "Sustainability of Swiss Fiscal Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1689, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Hénin, Pierre-Yves & Garcia, Sophie, 1996. "Balancing budget through tax increases or expenditures cuts : is it neutral ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9604, CEPREMAP.
  8. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  9. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Nominal interest rates and stationarity," Working Papers 2010_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  10. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Regime Changes And The Sustainability Of Fiscal Imbalance In East Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504001, EconWPA.
  12. Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
  13. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
  14. Andreas Bergh & Magnus Henrekson, 2011. "Government Size And Growth: A Survey And Interpretation Of The Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 872-897, December.
  15. Alfred Greiner & Uwe Köller & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Debt sustainability in the European Monetary Union: Theory and empirical evidence for selected countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 194-218, April.
  16. Antonio Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-5.
  17. Massimo Florio & Sara Colautti, 2005. "A logistic growth theory of public expenditures: A study of five countries over 100 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 355-393, March.
  18. Fernando C. Ballabriga & Carlos Martinez-Mongay, 2005. "Sustainability of EU public finances," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 225, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  19. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Multivariate GARCH models," CREATES Research Papers 2008-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  20. Payne, James E & Ewing, Bradley T, 1996. "International Evidence on Wagner's Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 258-74.
  21. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, December.
  22. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  23. Yesim Gurbuz & Thomas Jobert & Ruhi Tuncer, 2007. "Public debt in Turkey: evaluation and perspectives," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 343-359.
  24. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  25. Bohl, Martin T, 1996. "Some International Evidence on Wagner's Law," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 185-200.
  26. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
  27. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
  28. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  29. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
  30. Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 1999. "An Inquiry into the Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy: Some Time-Series Tests," Public Finance Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 220-236, March.
  31. Lori Leachman & Alan Bester & Guillermo Rosas & Peter Lange, 2005. "Multicointegration and Sustainability of Fiscal Practices," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 454-466, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:082012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.