IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/73551.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wagner's law, fiscal discipline, and intergovernmental transfer: Empirical evidence at the U.S. and German state levels

Author

Listed:
  • Funashima, Yoshito
  • Hiraga, Kazuki

Abstract

Does fiscal discipline restrain government from increasing its budget size? To answer this question, this paper investigates whether Wagner's law is satisfied for two types of states: U.S. states, in which fiscal sovereignty is established, and German states, in which fiscal transfer dependence is high and budget constraints are softened. In U.S. states, we demonstrate that Wagner's law is validated, while some of the balanced budget requirements weaken the validity of the law. In German states, we find an “inverse” law, especially after the bailouts of Bremen and Saarland. The “inverse” law is a new channel of growth in government size, and means that soft budget constraints cause significant negative correlation between government size and output. These results are robust regardless of whether intergovernmental fiscal transfers are taken into account, while they quantitatively change the validity of the law. Our findings imply that the characteristics of fiscal discipline are prime determinants of the channel and degree of growth in government size.

Suggested Citation

  • Funashima, Yoshito & Hiraga, Kazuki, 2016. "Wagner's law, fiscal discipline, and intergovernmental transfer: Empirical evidence at the U.S. and German state levels," MPRA Paper 73551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73551/1/MPRA_paper_73551.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2013. "A Fiscal Union for the Euro: Some Lessons from History ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 449-488, September.
    4. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1.
    5. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    7. Baretti, Christian & Huber, Bernd & Lichtblau, Karl, 2002. "A Tax on Tax Revenue: The Incentive Effects of Equalizing Transfers: Evidence from Germany," Munich Reprints in Economics 20129, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. Sunday Osaretin Iyare & Troy Lorde, 2004. "Co-integration, causality and Wagner's law: tests for selected Caribbean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 815-825.
    10. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1988. "An empirical re-examination of Wagner's law," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 169-173.
    11. Jan Kuckuck, 2014. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(1), pages 128-168, March.
    12. Christian Baretti & Bernd Huber & Karl Lichtblau, 2002. "A Tax on Tax Revenue: The Incentive Effects of Equalizing Transfers: Evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 9(6), pages 631-649, November.
    13. Gerrit B. Koester & Christoph Priesmeier, 2013. "Does Wagner´s Law Ruin the Sustainability of German Public Finances?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(3), pages 256-288, September.
    14. Jonathan A. Rodden & Gunnar S. Eskeland (ed.), 2003. "Fiscal Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182297, April.
    15. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Pistoresi, Barbara, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: The role of military spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 23-31.
    17. Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1143-1162, December.
    18. Ying-Foon Chow & John Cotsomitis & Andy Kwan, 2002. "Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1671-1677.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Arti Prasad & Baljeet Singh, 2008. "A test of the Wagner's hypothesis for the Fiji islands," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2793-2801.
    20. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2015. "Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 975-1005, August.
    21. Peacock, Alan & Scott, Alex, 2000. "The Curious Attraction of Wagner's Law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 1-17, January.
    22. Maddalena Cavicchioli & Barbara Pistoresi, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: the role of military spending," Department of Economics 0078, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    23. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
    24. Narayan, Seema & Rath, Badri Narayan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1548-1557.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    26. Maddalena Cavicchioli & Barbara Pistoresi, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: the role of military spending," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 116, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    27. Mahdavi, Saeid & Westerlund, Joakim, 2011. "Fiscal stringency and fiscal sustainability: Panel evidence from the American state and local governments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 953-969.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoshito Funashima & Kazuki Hiraga, 2017. "Wagner’s law, fiscal discipline, and intergovernmental transfer: empirical evidence at the US and German state levels," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 652-677, August.
    2. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    3. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Wagner's law versus displacement effect," MPRA Paper 68390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yoshito Funashima, 2017. "Wagner’s law versus displacement effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 619-634, February.
    5. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    7. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    8. Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Pistoresi, Barbara, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: The role of military spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 23-31.
    9. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    10. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    11. Ortiz, Cristian & Alvarado, Rafael & Salinas, Aldo, 2019. "The effect of military spending on output: New evidence at the global and country group levels using panel data cointegration techniques," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 402-414.
    12. Ayad Hicham, 2020. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in Mena Countries: Frequency Domain Spectral Causality Analysis," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 60-77, January.
    13. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    14. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    15. Saten Kumar & Zhaoyi Cao, 2020. "Testing for structural changes in the Wagner’s Law for a sample of East Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1959-1976, October.
    16. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    17. Cristian Barra & Giovanna Bimonte & Pietro Spennati, 2015. "Did fiscal institutions affect Wagner's law in Italy during 1951-2009 period? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(59), pages 6409-6424, December.
    18. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2015. "Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 975-1005, August.
    19. Alfonso Arpaia & Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 300, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner's law; Fiscal discipline; State government; Balanced budget requirements; Soft budget constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.