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Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development

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  • Jan Kuckuck

Abstract

Using historical data from the mid-19th century, we test the validity of Wagner's law of increasing state activity at different stages of economic development for five industrialized European countries: the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Italy. In order to investigate the relation between Wagner's law and development stage, we classify every country into individual stages of income and apply advanced cointegration and vector error-correction analyses. In line with Wagner's hypothesis, our findings show that the relationship between public spending and economic growth has weakened at an advanced stage of development. Furthermore, all countries under review support the notion that Wagner's law may have lost its economic relevance in recent decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Kuckuck, 2014. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(1), pages 128-168, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(201403)70:1_128:twlads_2.0.tx_2-7
    DOI: 10.1628/001522108X679183
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    1. Manabu Nose, 2017. "Estimation of drivers of public education expenditure: Baumol’s effect revisited," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 512-535, June.
    2. Funashima, Yoshito & Hiraga, Kazuki, 2016. "Wagner's law, fiscal discipline, and intergovernmental transfer: Empirical evidence at the U.S. and German state levels," MPRA Paper 73551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yoshito Funashima, 2017. "Wagner’s law versus displacement effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 619-634, February.
    4. Pistoresi, Barbara & Rinaldi, Alberto & Salsano, Francesco, 2017. "Government spending and its components in Italy, 1862–2009: Drivers and policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1117-1140.
    5. Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Pistoresi, Barbara, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: The role of military spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 23-31.
    6. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi & Francesco Salsano, 2015. "Government expenditure and economic development: evidence from Italy 1862-2009," Department of Economics 0065, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    7. Maddalena Cavicchioli & Barbara Pistoresi, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: the role of military spending," Department of Economics 0078, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Udo Aniefiok Benedict & Effiong Charles Efefiom & Ogar Ohiama Ochagu, 2016. "Economic Growth of West African Countries and the Validity of Wagner’s Law: A Panel Analysis," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 71-83.
    9. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    10. Dongmin Yao & Yijing Chen & Yixuan Xu, 2021. "How Public Expenditure and Bank Credit Affect Growth: Provincial and Enterprise Level Causal Evidence from China's 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 195-231, May.
    11. Nupur Nirola & Sohini Sahu, 2020. "Revisiting the Wagner’s law for Indian States using second generation panel cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 241-263, May.
    12. Maddalena Cavicchioli & Barbara Pistoresi, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: the role of military spending," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 116, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    13. Manuel Jaén-García, 2018. "Wagner’s Law: A Revision and a New Empirical Estimation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 13-35, March.
    14. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Wagner's law versus displacement effect," MPRA Paper 68390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yoshito Funashima & Kazuki Hiraga, 2017. "Wagner’s law, fiscal discipline, and intergovernmental transfer: empirical evidence at the US and German state levels," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 652-677, August.
    16. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner's law; government expenditure; economic development; cointegration; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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