Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand
Wagner’s Law states that the share of government expenditure in GNP will increase with economic development; many associated empirical studies substitute GNP with GDP. This paper presents an empirical investigation into the validity of Wagner’s Law for New Zealand over the period 1960-2007 and compares the results obtained using these two measures of output. Application of the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test suggests a cointegrating relationship between either output measure and the share of government spending, and further application of General to Specific, Engle and Granger, Phillip Hansen’s Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares and Johansen’s time series techniques illustrate statistical robustness and an income elasticity between 0.56 and 0.84. The results suggest that output measures Granger-cause the share of government expenditure in the long run, thereby providing support for Wagner’s Law, and these results are stable irrespective of the chosen output measure.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0117 328 3610
Web page: http://www1.uwe.ac.uk/bl/research/bristoleconomics.aspx
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521664103 is not listed on IDEAS
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
- Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study," MPRA Paper 2560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alfonso ARPAIA & Alessandro TURRINI, .
"Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short-Term Adjustment,"
- Alfonso Arpaia & Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 300, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury.
- Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-98, August.
- Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
- Ying-Foon Chow & John Cotsomitis & Andy Kwan, 2002. "Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1671-1677.
- M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
- Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan, 2006. "An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/08, New Zealand Treasury.
- Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
- Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:0917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Felix Ritchie)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.