IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inf/wpaper/2012.2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Richter

    () (University of East London)

  • Dimitrios Paparas

    () (University of East London)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the long-run relationship between national income and government spending by using Greek data from 1833 until 2010. We use 5 different formulations of Wagner’s law (the long run tendency for government expenditure to expand relative to economic growth) and find that empirical results are supportive for Wagner’s law. The data set span covers a period of almost 2 centuries; the long data set thus ensures the reliability of our results in terms of statistical and economic conclusions. Furthermore, the data set covers the early periods of development of the Greek economy, a period of growth, industrialisation and modernisation of the economy, conditions which should be conducive to Wagner’s law. Our analysis provides evidence of long run relationship between government spending and national income, while the Granger causality tests indicate that causality runs from the national income to spending. Moreover we include tests for structural changes to take into account regime changes that occur over time. Our empirical results are in accordance with other studies examined the validity of Wagner’s law in Greece and in other economies by using long data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2012.2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.infer-research.net/files_publications/WP2012_2_Richter_Paparas.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Mahmoud Wahab, 2004. "Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2125-2135.
    3. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    4. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    6. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan & Hooi-Yean Lee, 1999. "Testing Wagner versus Keynes using disaggregated public expenditure data for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1283-1291.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Shelton, Cameron A., 2007. "The size and composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2230-2260, December.
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    10. Maria do Rosario Correia & Reinhard Neck & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christian Richter, 2008. "An empirical investigation of the sustainability of the public deficit in Portugal," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 209-223, July.
    11. Lin, Chi-Ang, 1995. "More Evidence on Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(2), pages 267-277.
    12. John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 125-152, May.
    13. Michas, Nicholas A, 1975. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditures: What Is the Appropriate Measurement for a Valid Test?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 30(1), pages 77-85.
    14. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, December.
    15. Ying-Foon Chow & John Cotsomitis & Andy Kwan, 2002. "Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1671-1677.
    16. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
    17. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    18. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-298, August.
    19. Borcherding, Thomas E., 1985. "The causes of government expenditure growth: A survey of the U.S. evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 359-382, December.
    20. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    22. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
    23. Bharat Kolluri & Mahmoud Wahab, 2007. "Asymmetries in the conditional relation of government expenditure and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(18), pages 2303-2322.
    24. Bohl, Martin T, 1996. "Some International Evidence on Wagner's Law," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 185-200.
    25. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Antonis Adamopoulos, 2004. "A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 457-464.
    26. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
    27. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1979. "Approaches To the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth," Public Finance Review, , vol. 7(1), pages 3-23, January.
    28. Goffman, Irving J & Mahar, Dennis J, 1971. "The Growth of Public Expenditures in Selected Developing Nations: Six Caribbean Countries 1940-65," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 57-74.
    29. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
    30. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
    31. Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ismail, Abdul Ghafar & Jaafar, Abu Bakar, 2014. "Tax Rate and its Determinations: An Opinion from Ibn Khaldun," Working Papers 1435-1, The Islamic Research and Teaching Institute (IRTI).
    2. Udo Aniefiok Benedict & Effiong Charles Efefiom & Ogar Ohiama Ochagu, 2016. "Economic Growth of West African Countries and the Validity of Wagner’s Law: A Panel Analysis," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 71-83.
    3. repec:hur:ijarbs:v:7:y:2017:i:4:p:881-899 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2012.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Richter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.