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Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study

  • Sinha, Dipendra

Wagner’s Law suggests that as the GDP of a country increases, so does its government expenditure. We test for the Law for Thailand using recent advances in econometric techniques. Both total and per capita GDP and government expenditure are used. Ng-Perron unit root tests show that all variables are integrated of order 1. Toda-Yamamoto tests of Granger causality show that there is no causality flowing from either direction between GDP and government expenditure. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) tests of cointegration show very weak evidence of a long-run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. Thus, we do not find much evidence that the Wagner’s Law holds for Thailand.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2560.

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Date of creation: 26 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2560
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  1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  3. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-15.
  4. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
  5. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
  6. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  7. Chi-Ang Lin, 2002. "On the level of persistence in government size: time-series evidence and implications for the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 999-1005.
  8. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
  9. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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